CONSTRUYENDO OPORTUNIDADES PARA EMPLEO, INVERSIÓN Y CRECIMIENTO EN EL SALVADOR viernes 15 de mayo de 2015 Salón de Honor de Cancillería de El Salvador
“EMPODERAMIENTO TRANSNACIONAL SALVADOREÑO: DE CÍRCULOS VICIOSOS DE EXCLUSIÓN A CÍRCULOS VIRTUOSO DE INCLUSIÓN” Dr. Raul Hinojosa Ojeda
“Empoderamiento Transnacional Salvadoreño: De Círculos Viciosos de Exclusión a Círculos Virtuoso de Inclusión” Dr. Raul Hinojosa Ojeda Profesor y Director UCLA North American Integration and Development (NAID) Center
Empoderamiento Transnacional Salvadoreño: De Círculos Viciosos de Exclusión a Círculos Virtuoso de Inclusión
1) Las dimensiones y los destinos de la interdependencia
transnacional que operan en El Salvador y los Estados Unidos:
2) De la Critica de Circulos Viciosos Transnacionales …. La pobreza, las migraciones indocumentadas, las exclusiones sociales y barreras al crecimiento Transnacionales 3) … A la Creacion de Circulos Virtuosos Transnacionales– (1) reforma migratoria y (2) remesas movil, inclusión financiera transnacional, Bonos de Desarrollo Local y Retiro para la DIASPORA
Quantifying Comparative Policy Approaches • Immigration reform (DACA/DAPA/CIR) • Technologies for Mobilizing remittances • Diaspora Development Bonds and Retirement • Compare to PfG and Fomilenio II
Quantifying Comparative Policy Approaches • DATA DATOS! DATA!!
DATOS!!!
• Data Agenda on Collection, Omission, Liberation, and Occultation
Comparación de EE. UU, California, Los Angeles and El Salvador Según PIB, población y remesas 2010 Salvadorians Salvadorians Salvadorians in in El Salvador in U.S. California Los Angeles
United States
California
Los Angeles
Población (m)
307.374
37
9.86
6.2
2.0
1.2
0.9
GDP (bn)
14,582.275
1,847
339
22.3
72.5
44.94
32.0
GDP per capita (us)
46,380.912
48,956
48,610
3,547
29,567
32,050
32,050
Remensas (bn)
110
25
14
3.8
3.2
1.4
1.0
El Salvador and US Diaspora Value Added 1980-2020
El Salvador and Diaspora Population 1980-2020
140
10 9
120
8
100 80
6 5
US Born
4
US Sal FB
3
El Salvador
2013
2
60
2013
40 20
1
0 1/1/2017
1/1/2014
1/1/2011
1/1/2008
1/1/2005
1/1/2002
1/1/1999
1/1/1996
1/1/1993
1/1/1990
1/1/1987
1/1/1984
0 1/1/1981
Título del eje
7
6,352,000 El Salvador 1,310,000 US ES Foreign Born 800,000 US Born ES Origin
El Salvador
24.259 Billion 74.483 Billion
US Sal Org
El Salvador US ES Diaspora
El Salvador 2014 – La Familia Transnacional 8.46 m (6.35+2.11) US Sal FB 17%
US Born 10%
Otros 17% El Salvador Nativo 56%
ES Persons en Hogares de Migrantes 15%
ES Ninos de Migrantes 2%
• US ES FB Undocumented Total: 686,000 • TSP 250,000 Daca DAPA 142,000
El Salvador 1/1/2019
1/1/2017
1/1/2015
1/1/2013
1/1/2011
1/1/2009
El Salvador US Sal Org
1/1/2017
1/1/2014
1/1/2011
1/1/2008
1/1/2005
1/1/2002
1/1/1999
1/1/1996
1/1/1993
0.00 1/1/1990
10.00
1/1/1987
20.00
1/1/1984
60.00
1/1/1981
US Sal Org 1/1/2007
1/1/2005
1/1/2003
1/1/2001
1/1/1999
1/1/1997
1/1/1995
1/1/1993
1/1/1991
1/1/1989
1/1/1987
1/1/1985
1/1/1983
1/1/1981
El Salvador and Diaspora Household Income 1980-2010-2020 El Salvador and Diaspora Household Savings 19802010-2020
12.00
50.00 10.00
40.00 8.00
30.00 6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Salvadorian Diaspora Income, Savings and Projected Remittance Savings 2010
El Salvador
US ES Diaspora
Household Income
Household Savings
Household Savings Projections (Dean Yang, 2014)
$9.085 bn
1.2 bn
(.468)
$33.6
3.146
3.614
Ashraf, Nava, Diego Aycinena, Claudia Martinez, and Dean Yang. "Savings in Transnational Households: A Field Experiment among Migrants from El Salvador.“ NBER (2014) Del Borgo, Maria. "Ethnic and Racial Disparities in Saving Behavior.“ NBER (2013)
Hispanic Wealth Scenarios 2025: Federal Reserve of St. Louis Salvadorian Diaspora Scenarios (a) $68.83 bn (b) $125.62 bn
William R. Emmons and Bryan J. Noeth, “Hispanic Population’s Share of Wealth Likely to Increase by 2025”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2014.
FOMILENIO II - 5 Años $ 277 m donación de la MCC $ 88 m contraparte de Gobierno
75 Municipios 1,473,631 Poblacion 323,508 Migrantes
$888 m de Remesas – por Año
Hogares Migrantes Annual Ingreso 14.8 bn Potencial de Ahorro en Retiro de $28.56 dn
y Ahorro 2.3 bn y 2.8 bn SS por Año
Tax growth from DACA+DAPA for Salvadorians in LA County alone over Five Years = $260,000,000 Total National ES DAPA/DACA = $1.82 bn Over 5 years Annual US ES Taxes= $3.2 bn
US and El Salvador are Imbedded in a Transnational, Micro-Geographic and Intergenerational Interdependence • Critical Question is how to transition through – Web of Serious Challenges (Vicious Cycle) – to Huge Opportunities (Virtuous Cycle)
Transnational Vicious Cycle •Economic Dependence on Remittances •Labor Demand in US
Undocumented Migration Lack of opportunity and Out Migration Pressure
=>Undocumented =>Lower Wages => Higher Demand
USA
Mexico & El Salvador
•Cash Remittances •Absence of investment in infrastructure •Increase in crime •Lack of job development •Inflation
•Average Income: $29,700 (undoc.) v. $54,600 (US born) •Over 56% are living in poverty
Inflation and Dutch Disease
High poverty/ Low financial inclusion
Cash Remittances
•37-45% of unbanked are undocumented •Lack of savings and investments •33% carry health insurance v. 81% of native-born population
15
Transnational Migrant Savings Bond Legal Migration
•
Immigrant Empowerment through DACA, DAPA, and CIR
Increasing Employment Opportunities
•
USA
EL SALVADOR Migrant Development Savings Bond
Financial Empowerment through multiple strategies including City ID Cards
Remittances via Mobile Banking
•
•
Incorporate this new technology for financial inclusion across borders. • New ability to do mobile-debit to mobile debit Distributed prepaid debit cards in the US • Migrants able to send through mobile technology (app) • Lower Fees Receiving Remittances • Families w/ own issued debit card • Debit card linked to savings account Exchanges • Meets Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidelines • Banking the Unbanked on Both Sending and Receiving Regions
CITY ID 2.0
¿POR QUE LA MIGRACION DE EL SALVADOR A ESTADOS UNIDOS? Chart 2: US Unemployment and Net Undocumented Migration
12
1200 1000 800
8
600
6
400 200
4
0 2
-200
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
unemployment rate
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-400
1991
0
1990
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
10
Sources:Warren, R., & Warren, J. R. (2013). Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010. International Migration Review, 47(2), p. 315. doi:10.1111/imre.12022 -US Department of Labor (DOL), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (2014). Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutional Population, 1943 to 2013. Washington, DC: DOL, BLS.
Net Change (Thousands)
Desempleo y Migración Indocumentada
¿POR QUE LA MIGRACION DE EL SALVADOR A ESTADOS UNIDOS?
Migrants Apprehended by Nation of Origin FY 2003-FY 2012 160,000
1,200,000
Central American Migrants Apprehended
140,000
1,000,000
120,000 800,000
100,000 80,000
600,000
60,000
400,000
40,000 200,000
20,000 0
0 2003
2004
Central America
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mexico
Source: DHS immigration yearbook 2012 https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2012/ENF/table34d.xls
2012
Mexican Migrants Apprehended
Migrantes Detenidos
¿El FIN PELIGROSO DE LA MIGRACION DE EL SALVADOR A ESTADOS UNIDOS?
¿El FIN PELIGROSO DE LA MIGRACION DE EL SALVADOR A ESTADOS UNIDOS?
¿POR QUE LA MIGRACION DE EL SALVADOR A ESTADOS UNIDOS?
20% de las familias en El Salvador reciben remesas
Exportaciones de productos primarios y café, cooperación económica y militar de Estados Unidos y remesas como porcentaje del PIB de El Salvador (1960-2010)
Importancia macroeconómica de las remesas El Salvador, 2013 Millones de $
Remesas como porcentaje de:
PIB
3,953 24,259
16
Exportaciones (con maquila neta)
2,958
117
Importaciones (sin maquila)
6,416
54
Inversión extranjera directa
431
804
Carga tributaria
2,829
123
Presupuesto
3,628
96
Gasto social
1,708
203
Brecha comercial
3,457
100
Variable
Remesas
Fuente: Elaboración propia a partir de datos del BCR
Fuente: Elaboración propia a partir de datos del BCR
El Salvador: Remesa y Ahorro Privado por PIB 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ahorro Privado
Remesa
Ahorror por Hogar de US Latino and Salvador Households (495k) Mean Value excl SS & Pensions Per Household 398 K 214 K Potential Total 197 bn 105 bn
Fuente; DIGESTYC
Base de Datos On-line del Transnacionalismo Salvadoreño
Datos TPS
Datos Consulares
Datos NAID Center Datos US Census
Datos DUI
Datos Passaportes
NAID GIS http://dti.minec.gov.sv/uclanaid
Datos Censo El Salvador
1) Base de Datos On-line para Transnacionalismo Salvadoreño
http://dti.minec.gov.sv/uclanaid
Migrantes de Jiquilisco en Estados Unidos por Condados
http://dti.minec.gov.sv/uclanaid
Migrantes de Jiquilisco en Estados Unidos por Códigos Postal
http://dti.minec.gov.sv/uclanaid
Migrantes de Jiquilisco en Estados Unidos por Códigos Postal
http://dti.minec.gov.sv/uclanaid
90006 – El Salvador en EE.UU.
http://dti.minec.gov.sv/uclanaid
Jiqulisco USA: A Dutch Disease? Income Jiqulisco Jiqulisco USA
Usulutan (Dept) Usulutan in US Jiquilisco Jiquilisco in US
1. 2. 3. 4.
37.7 m 343.5 m
Consumption
Savings
28.2
Wealth
4.3
19,300
36.1
1.3 bn
Population Income per Capita Annual Income Annual Remittanc Remittances/Income 344,235 1,082 372,393,423 61,040,488 16% 53,205 20,000 1,064,100,000 47,784 36,564
806 19,300
38,515,815 343,280,000
Salvadoran economic data from Peñate (2010) Population from Censo de Poblacion y Vivienda (2007) Migrant Population from gis.ats.ucla.edu/naid Salvadoran immigrant income from Pew (2009)
36,935,263
77%
Usulután Sin Fronteras Populación
Ingresos Ingresos Capita (Anual) Anuales
Usulután (Dept)
344,235
1,082
372,393,423
Usulután in US
53,205
20,000
1,064,100,000
Jiquilisco
47,784
806
38,515,815
Jiquilisco in US
6,564
19,300
131,280,000
Remensas Anuales
Remensas e Ingresos
61,040,488
16%
7,935,263
21%
Transnational Migrant Savings Bond Legal Migration
Increasing Employment Opportunitie s
•
Immigrant Empowerment through DACA, DAPA, and CIR
Home Country
•
Los Angeles Migrant Developmen t Savings Bond
Financial Empowerment through multiple strategies including City ID Cards
Remittances via Mobile Banking
•
•
Incorporate this new technology for financial inclusion across borders. • New ability to do mobile-debit to mobile debit Distributed prepaid debit cards in the US – Migrants able to send through mobile technology (app) – Lower Fees Receiving Remittances – Families w/ own issued debit card – Debit card linked to savings account Exchanges – Meets Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidelines – Banking the Unbanked on Both Sending and Receiving Regions
CITY ID 2.0
El Salvador has a Huge Transnational Banking Technology Potential Mobile cellular subscriptions 140 per 100 people 160 140 120 100
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) IT.CEL.SETS.P2
80 60 40 20 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
Mobile Coverage ~100%
El Salvador tiene el gap mas grande entre penetracion movil (92%) y bancarizacion (23%)
Top Innovative Policy Solution
Best Prepaid Innovation
2013
2014
CHAMPION OF CHANGE CEO - DR. RAUL HINOJOSA
2012 2013: NYU Wagner School of Public Policy The Center for an Urban Future Awarded For Oakland City ID Prepaid MasterCard®
2014: Innovation Project (pymnts.com) @ Harvard University Awarded For Oakland City ID Prepaid MasterCard®
2012: United States White House Champion of Change Awarded for “Connecting the Americas”
Remittance and Migrant Savings Bond Migrant Savings Bond Development fund to provide low-cost microloans for productive projects abroad Banking of Remittances Leverage a variety of other local resources Microfinance institutions to create employment opportunities Create Sustainable opportunities and community developments
Multilateral Development Funds US Bank
El Salvador Bank
Microloans
Legal Migration Migrant Savings Bond
Increasing Employment Opportunities
Immigrant Empowerment through DACA, DAPA, and CIR
Los Angeles
Home Country
Remittances
Productive Projects
Migrant Development Savings Bond
Financial Empowerment through multiple strategies including City ID Cards
Remittances via Mobile Banking
CITY ID 2.0
Remittance and Bond:Structure & Process
38 ID 2.0 CITY
Tarjeta Red Oaxaca “Sin Fronteras”
Partnerships with Envios Confianza and the Association of Mexican Credit Unions (AMUCCS), allow remittances sent by Mexicans residing in the US to be paid out by Transfercel cards belonging to members of a wide network of microbanks in rural Guerrero, Puebla and Oaxaca. Microbank members can then transfer all or part of their received funds to their savings account
MFIs, Credit Unions
Microfinance Institutions
Transfers to microfinance accounts
Stores, pharmacies, remittance payout locations
OAXACA
Transfercel stores in Oaxaca
Retail Network
Stores opened in towns with highest number of matriculas consulares issued in LA
MNOs and telcos
MVNO/mobile top-off
Cash in/out at Telcel distribution points
Productive Projects in Ayoquezco de Aldama, Oaxaca MENA (Mujeres Envasadoras de Nopales), a women’s cooperative that grows and packages nopal–la leguita- a cactus native to Oaxaca and considered a delicacy.
The bottling process: women from the cooperative sterilize jars to package the organic nopal.
Bottled nopales, ready to be shipped for consumption in Mexico and the United States.
MENA Fully Equipped Factory, Ayoquezco, Oaxaca
2008 Grand Opening of Los Angeles Oaxacan business incubator & store that sells MENA and other Mexican products
The El Salvador-United States Transnational Corridors GIS Interactive
Jiquilisco, Usulutan Total Population: 17,342 Total Annual Income: $22,312,911.30
Immigrant Population in US: 3,161 Total Remittances Sent from US: $15,463,356.94
Mangroves, Migration, and Microfinance
Building transnational partnerships and programs to promote financial inclusion and sustainable development in the Bay of Jiquilisco, El Salvador Dr. Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda Associate Professor, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Director and Founder, North American Integration and Development Center (NAID) CEO, SF Global/Transfercel Email:
[email protected] or
[email protected] U.S. phone: (310) 415-8236 El Salvador phone: +(503) 77151596
Monica Carrie Harvin Graduate Research Assistant, UCLA North American Integration & Development Center Latin American Studies, M.A. Candidate 2012 Email:
[email protected] U.S. phone: (941) 896-2954 El Salvador phone +(503) 77636090
Identifying projects to improve local productivity and livelihoods • Project: Purchase of boat motors • Mechanisms necessary: ACCESS TO SAVINGS AND CREDIT FOR PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENTS
Photo Credits: Jorge Hinojosa & Monica Harvin
Combating Financial Exclusion • World Bank Data for El Salvador 2012:
• Only 14% have a formal bank account • Only 1% of the poorest • Only 10% of women
• Only 13% have formal savings accounts • Only 0.8% originated a loan in the last year through a traditional bank Photo Credits: Monica Harvin
“Cuantos quieren micro créditos productivos a baja taza de interés?”
Source: Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Klapper, L. (2012). Measuring Financial Inclusion: The Global Findex Database. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6025. Washington DC.
Access to Microfinance • 6 of 23 fisher(wo)men accessed microloans to purchase motors
• No women accessed loans • Average effective interest rate: 43.88% • Average monthly payment: $71.47 over average 2.21 years • 1/6 of average monthly income • 5/6 unable to make the full payment on time at some point during life of loan
• Conclusions: Access to both traditional financial services and microfinance is limited and prohibitively expensive for the poorest. • How then can they improve their livelihoods? Photo Credits: Monica Harvin
Source: Monica Harvin & Raul Hinojosa, UCLA NAID Center (2012).
BONO MIGRANTE DE ECO-DESARROLLO
Attacking the barriers to financial exclusion
• Partnerships with migrant networks
• Government and development organization leveraging • Microfinance partnerships – Lower cost of capital – Lower operation and administrative costs
• Development of the Bono Migrante de EcoDesarrollo
BONO MIGRANTE DE ECO-DESARROLLO
INICIATIVAS DE DESARROLLO Y DIASPORA
ASOCIOS PUBLICO / PRIVADO PARA DESARROLLO
BRIDGE INITIATIVE
BONO BANCO BANCO
FONDO DE GARANTÍ A
OPCIÓN: COMPRAR BONO DE ECO-DESARROLLO
INSTITUCIONES DE DESARROLLO GARANTIZADORES
$0.25 POR REMESA MUNICIPIOS
MICROFINANCIERAS INVERSIONISTAS 4%
ENVIAR REMESA FAMILIAR TARJETA MIGRANTE RECARGAS PAGOS
PRESTAM OS 8% TARJETA MUNICIPAL FAMILIAR ASISTENCIA TÉCNICA RECARGAS PAGOS RED DE ORGANIZACIÓN PRODUCTIVAS PROYECTOS PRODUCTIVOS
RED DE TIENDAS DISTRIBUDORES Y SERVICIOS
RED DE TIENDAS DISTRIBUDORES Y SERVICIOS
Listos??
Reunión Comunitaria Jiqulisco, Mayo 2014
