Fondo Monetario Internacional 13 de mayo, 2016

Perspectivas para Latinoamérica y el Caribe: Administrando transiciones y riesgos Mario Garza Representante Residente Regional para Centroamérica, Panamá y República Dominicana

Parte 1:

Parte 2: Capítulos Analíticos

Tendencias y perspectivas

Entendiendo vulnerabilidades corporativas

Riesgos

Traspaso del tipo de cambio

Políticas

Infraestructura

Parte 1: Tendencias y Perspectivas

Economías emergentes y en desarrollo

China

India

Brasil

Rusia

Mundo

Economías avanzadas

Estados Unidos

Japón

Zona del Euro

2015

3.1

1.9

2.4

0.5

1.6

4.0

6.9

7.3

-3.8

-3.7

2016

3.2

1.9

2.4

0.5

1.5

4.1

6.5

7.5

-3.8

-1.8

Revisión de Enero 2016

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.3

-0.8

2017

3.5

2.0

2.5

-0.1

1.6

4.6

6.2

7.5

0.0

0.8

Revisión de Enero 2016

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

Fuentes: FMI, actualización de enero 2016 de la base de datos del informe WEO; y FMI, base de datos del informe WEO de abril 2016.

4

EMs: Real GDP Growth (Percent; various WEO forecast vintages)

AEs: Real GDP Growth (Percent; various WEO forecast vintages) April '08

5

April '11

April '16

9

4

8

3

7

2

6

1

5

0

4

-1

3

-2

2

-3

1

-4

0 2000

04

08

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

12

16

April '08

20

2000

04

April '11

08

April '16

12

16

20

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

5

Contribution to Growth (Percentage points)

1

Net exports Government consumption and investment Oil investment

Payrolls and Unemployment Rate 400 8

8.5

Unemployment rate (percent; right scale)

Change in nonfarm payrolls (thousands)

Average, 2004–06

6

0

Policy Rates Expectations (Percent)

4 -1

300

7.5

4

3

200

6.5

2

100

5.5

1

Primary Dealers Survey (expectation range, as at 3/21/16) FOMC dots (median) Circles: as at 3/16/16 Diamonds: as at 12/16/15 IMF staff projection (as at 3/25/16)

2 -2

-3

Private sales growth (percent, right scale)

2014Q1

2014Q3

Real GDP growth (percent, right scale)

2015Q1

2015Q3

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; and IMF staff calculations.

0 -2

Fed funds futures (as at 3/16/16)

0

2013

2014

2015

2016

4.5

Sources: Bloomberg, L.P.; Federal Reserve; and IMF staff estimates.

0 2016Q1

2017Q3

2019Q1

2020Q3

2022Q1

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; and IMF staff calculations

6

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

ALC: Crecimiento del PIB real (Porcentaje)

Crecimiento ALC 2016: -0.5%

Proyecciones 2014

2015

2016

2017

ALC

1.3

-0.1

-0.5

1.5

América del Sur

0.7

-1.4

-2.0

0.8

CAPRD

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.4

Economías dependientes del turismo

1.1

1.2

2.2

2.3

Países exportadores de materias primas

0.0

-0.9

-0.6

2.1

AL-6

1.4

-0.3

-0.3

1.6

Brasil

0.1

-3.8

-3.8

0.0

El Salvador

2.0

2.4

2.5

2.6

México

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.6

El Caribe

Partidas informativas:

Fuentes: FMI, base de datos del informe WEO. Nota: El promedio histórico se refiere al crecimiento promedio de 2000–13.

Fuente: FMI, base de datos del informe WEO. Nota: Promedio ponderado por el PIB en función de la paridad del poder adquisitivo.

7

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Estimates of Medium-Term Growth by Forecast Vintage, 2000–16 (Percent) 5.0 4.5

4.5

4.0

4.2

3.5 3.4 3.0

2.8

Fall 2015

Fall 2014

Fall 2013

Fall 2012

Spring 2016

World Economic Outlook Vintage

Fall 2011

Fall 2010

Fall 2009

Fall 2008

Fall 2007

Fall 2006

Fall 2005

Fall 2004

Fall 2003

Fall 2002

Fall 2001

Fall 2000

2.5

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database. Note: Reflects projected real GDP growth for the last year (t+5) of the forecast horizon.

8

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Exportaciones: crecimiento de EUA favorable pero un freno por el lado de materias primas

El efecto acumulado de los términos de intercambio es notable para algunos

Condiciones financieras y flujos de capitales volátiles

LAC Exports to the World (Average 2010–13; percent of GDP)

Decline in Commodity Terms of Trade and Foregone Income

Equity and Bond Flows (Billions of U.S. dollars)

0

0

1.0

-5

-2

0.5

-10

-4

-15

-6

-20

-8

-25

-10

15

-30

-12

-1.5

10

-35

-14

-2.0

Sources: UN Comtrade; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.

Source: Gruss (2014).

2015

2016

Source: EPFR website.

9

Apr-16

Colombia Argentina

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Mexico Brazil

Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

-20

-2.5

Peru Chile

Aug-15 Sep-15

-18

-1.0

VEN

PRY CHL MEXVEN ECUGTM PER URY COL ARGPAN BRA

COL

-50

0

ECU

Foregone income (percent of GDP, right scale)

-45

BRA

5

-16

-0.5

May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15

-40

0.0

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

CTOT (percent)

ARG

20

PER

25

CHL

30

Commodity exports Non-commodity exports USA Rest of the world

MEX

35

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

REER

Versus U.S. dollar

Brasil

Colombia

México

125

125

100

100

75

75

50

50

125

125

100

100

75

75

50

50

June 2014

Sept. 2008

Worst

10

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Perú

REER

Versus U.S. dollar

Chile 125

125

100

100

75

75

50

50

125

125

100

100

75

75

50

50

June 2014

Sept. 2008

Worst

11

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

REER Depreciation and Current Account Balance 0

Current account balance (percent of GDP)

-1 Chile

-2

Brazil Mexico

-3

-4 Peru

-5

Colombia

-6 -7 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Accumulated real depreciation (percent) Sources: IMF, Information Notice System database; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Each arrow represents movements over a calendar year since the peak of the real exchange rate in 2013 (quarterly data) . The dashed lines correspond to forecasts for 2016.

12

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

REER Depreciation and Current Account Balance 4

Current account balance (percent of GDP)

2 0 Chile

-2

Mexico

Brazil

Ecuador

-4

Peru

-6

Colombia

Bolivia

-8

Appreciation

-10 -50

-40

-30

-20

-10

Depreciation 0

10

20

30

40

50

Accumulated real depreciation (percent) Sources: IMF, Information Notice System database; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Each arrow represents movements over a calendar year since the peak of the real exchange rate in 2013 (quarterly data) . The dashed lines correspond to forecasts for 2016. For Bolivia, base current account balance is 2013 (annual).

13

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Latin America: Confidence Indices (Index: 2011 = 100)

Change in Private Investment, 2011–15 (Percentage points of GDP) 4

120

3

Consumer confidence index¹ Business confidence index²

110

2 1

100

0

90

-1

80

-2

70

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.

Mar-16

Jul-15

Nov-14

Mar-14

Jul-13

Nov-12

Mar-12

Jul-11

Nov-10

60

Mar-10

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Chile

Ecuador

Venezuela

Brazil

Argentina

-4

Jul-09

-3

Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations. ¹ Purchasing-power-parity GDP-weighted average of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. ² Purchasing-power-parity GDP-weighted average of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.

14

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

CAPDR: Growth, Inflation, and Current Account Deficit (Y-o-y in percent; current account deficit in percent of GDP)

CAPDR : Contributions to Real GDP Growth (Year-over-year percent change) Net exports

Inventories

Investment

Consumption

Current account deficit

Real GDP

Inflation

Real GDP growth

12

8

10

6

8 4

6 4

2

2 0

0

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. ¹ Includes changes in inventories and statistical discrepancy.

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2016

2007

2015

2006

2014

2005

2013

2004

2012

2003

2011

2002

-2

2001

-2

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

16

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

12 10 8

CAPDR : Annual Change in Terms of Trade Across WEO Vintages (Percent)

CAPDR: Fiscal Deficit (Percent of GDP) 8

Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Spring 2016

7

2014

2015

6 5

6

4

4

3

2

2

0

1

-2 -4 2010

2013

0 -1 2012

2014

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

2016

2018

2020

CRI

DOM

SLV

GTM

HND

NIC

PAN

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Overall fiscal balance for the Dominican Republic in 2015 includes the grant element of the debt buyback operation with PDVSA amounting to 3.1 percent of GDP.

17

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Growth, Inflation, and Current Account Balance (Percent; Percent of GDP)

CAPDR: Real GDP Growth (Percent) 10

10 8

Prom. 2009-13 8

6

Prom. 2014-15

4

Prom. 2016-17 6

2 0

4

-2 -4

2

-6 -8

CA Balance

Real GDP Growth

CPI

Food Inflation

-10

0 2010

2011

2012

2013

Sources: National authorities, Haver and Fund staff estimates.

2014

2015

2016

PAN

DOM

NIC

CRI

GTM

HND

SLV

Sources: National authorities.

18

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Public Debt (Percent of GDP)

Poverty and Inequality (Percent of population; Gini) 80

65

70 60

60 50

55

6 Moderate Poverty Extreme Poverty

5

Gini Coefficient (right scale) Average GDP Per Capita Growth - previous 5 years (right scale)

4

40 50

3

30

2

20

45

1

10 0

40 2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: National authorities and Fund estimates.

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Sources: WDI, INE; and IMF staff calculations. ¹ National poverty lines.

19

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Real GDP per Capita Growth, 1902–2017 (Percentage change)

12

5-year CDS and Equity Index

Great depression (1929–31) Debt crisis + hyperinflation +impeachment (1981–83, 1990–92) Current crisis (2014–17)

600

120

CDS (basis points) BOVESPA (index: 1/2/13=100, right scale)

500

110

10 8

100

400

6

90 300

4

80

Sources: For 1902-1947. Haddad, Claudio Luiz da Silva. "Crescimento do produto real no Brasil, 1900-1947", R. bras. Econ., 1975. For 1947-2013, IBGE, Sistema de Contas Nacionais Referência 2000. Population data from IBGE's decennial census with log-linear interpolation.

Mar-16

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

50 May-14

0

Mar-14

60

Jan-14

-4.6-4.6

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-8

-4.6 -5.9 -5.8

100

Nov-13

-6

-3.6 -4.7

-2.0

-1.3

Sep-13

-4

-0.4

70

Jul-13

-2

200

May-13

0

-0.8

Mar-13

-0.9 -0.7

Jan-13

2

Source: Bloomberg, L.P.

20

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

World: Pension Expenditures and Elderly Population, 2015

General Government Debt by WEO Vintage (Percent of fiscal year GDP) 95

18

90 85 80

Pension expenditures (percent of GDP)

Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Spring 2016

75 70 65 60 55

16 14

Brazil

12 10 8 6 4

y = 0.6x - 0.3 R² = 0.7 n = 105

2 0 0

50 2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

5

10 15 20 25 65+ years old population (percent of total)

30

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators database; and IMF staff estimates.

21

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Overall Balance (Percent of fiscal year GDP)

Inflation (Percent)

0

35 Actual

-1

30

-2

Target Min-Max range

25

-3

20

-4 15

-5

10

-6 -7

Actual

Target

-8

5 0

2015

2016

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

2017

2018

2019

Feb. 2016

2016

2017

2018

2019

Sources: Haver Analytics; and national authorities.

22

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas

Crecimiento de China más lento que lo esperado y precios de las materias primas más bajos Un mayor deterioro de la situación en Brasil Un colapso en Venezuela

Vulnerabilidades más altas en el sector corporativo y menor inversión

Parte 1: Políticas

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas: Fiscal

Primary Government Expenditure (Percent of GDP) Primary expenditure

Argentina

45 35 30

30

25 20

29

15

28 2001

2005

2009

2013

25

35

23

30

21

25

19

20

17

15

15 2005

2009

2003

2005

2013

2017

2005

2009

2013

2007

2017

Mexico

27

40

2001

2001

2001

2017

Ecuador

45

Brazil

36 34 34 33 32 32 30 31 28

40

Average 2001–07

2001

2005

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.

2009

29 27 25 23 21 19 2009 17 15 2001

Average 2008–15

Chile

2017

28 26 24

2011

2013

2015

22 20

2005

2009

2013

2017

Peru

22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 2013

Colombia

2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

2013

2017

Uruguay

30 28 26 24 22

2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

2001

2005

2009

25

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas: Fiscal

Government Revenue (Percent of GDP) Government revenues

Argentina

40

1.3

Brazil

37

28 36 1.2 26 35 24 1.1 34 22 1.0 20 33

35 30 25

32 2001

15

0.8

31

2009

2013

Ecuador

45

20.8

40

15.8

35 30

10.8

25

5.8

20 15

0.8 2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

5

2003

2005

2007

22 2009

2005

2009

2013

2017

Mexico

27

10

25

8

23

6

21

4

19

2001

2011

2013

15

0

15

2005

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.

2009

2013

2017

2009

2013

2013

2

20

0

2017

2001

5

31

4

30

2

2009

3

0

3

2005

4

1

Peru

2001

5

22

19

17

30

2015 1

21

17

2001

2005

23

2

Colombia

5 4 4 28 3 3 2 26 1 2 0 24

20 2001

2017

28

24

0.9 2005

Chile

26

20 2001

Commodity revenues (right scale)

2017

2005

2009

2013

2017

Uruguay

29 28 27

1

26

0

25 2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

26

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas: Fiscal

Deuda Bruta ≧ 49 por ciento del PIB

Chile Perú

México Argentina Colombia Uruguay¹

Balance primario efectivo < Deuda estabilizadora del balance primario

Venezuela Brasil Ecuador

Cambio en EMBIG spread, desde 2010 ＞150 puntos base² Sources: Bloomberg, L.P.; Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) from country reports; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. ¹ Gross debt for Uruguay includes central bank debt. ² On average for emerging markets, EMBIG spread has increased by 150 basis points for the relevant period as of March 2016.

27

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas: Monetaria

Inflation Comparison, 2015¹ (Average; annual percent change)

Grandes y persistentes depreciaciones

27 122

18 16 14 12 10 8

South America average

6 4 2 0 URY BRA ARG VEN

AE Asia Europe MENA SSA

-2 SLV BLZ PAN CRI DOM GTM MEX HND PER NIC CHL COL

Demanda débil

Central America average

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database. Note: AE = Advanced Economies; Asia = Emerging and Developing Asia; Europe = Emerging and Developing Europe; MENA = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. ¹ South America average excludes Venezuela. Argentina refers to Buenos Aires inflation.

28

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas: Monetaria

Inflation and Exchange Rate Depreciations, 1982–2016 (Percent) 60

Previous episodes Current episodes

50

Ecuador (1997)

Inflation

40 Mexico (1995) 30

Ecuador (1983)

Costa Rica (1991) Chile (1982)

20

Uruguay (2002)

10

Brazil (1999)

Peru (2013)

0 0

-10

-20

Brazil (2001) Chile (2013) Mexico (2013) -30

Colombia (1984)

Brazil (2013) Colombia (2013)

-40 -50 -60 Depreciation versus U.S. dollar

-70

-80

-90

-100

Source: IMF staff calculations. Note: Excludes hyperinflation periods. Years in parenthesis refer to the start of the episode.

29

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas: Monetaria

Exchange Rates, Inflation, and Policy Rates (National currency per U.S. dollar and percentage points)

Jan-13 Jul-13

Jul-13 Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-14 Jan-15

700

8

Jul-14 Jul-15

Jan-16 Jan-15

Mexico

5

6 4

4

18

4

3

16

3

2

14

2

1

12

1

0 Jan-13

10

0 Jan-13

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Sources: Bloomberg, L.P.; Haver Analytics; Consensus Forecasts; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Lighter shades are for 25 bps change in policy rate and darker shades are for 50 bps change.

25

25

0 Jul-15 Jan-13

25

2

5

Jan-14

3500

3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

20

Jul-13

4000

4000

25

400

Colombia

25

25

25

25

25

0 Jan-13

25

1

10

500 -50

2

Policy rate hikes

800

600

-25

3

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

-25

4

Policy rate cuts

ST Expectations

50

Chile

6 5

Inflation Exchange rate (right scale)

25

Target range MT Expectations

2000

2000

1500

1500 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jul-13

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Peru

3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16 30

Perspectivas regionales ● Riesgos ● Políticas: Estructural

Structural Performance Indicators (Percentile ranks) 100

Learning outcomes (PISA)

Infrastructure quality (WEF)

Ease of doing business (WB)

80 60 40 20

Mexico Chile Peru Colombia Costa Rica Panama Guatemala El Salvador Uruguay Dominican Republic Honduras Brazil Nicaragua

Panama Chile Mexico El Salvador Guatemala Uruguay Honduras Dominican Republic Costa Rica Nicaragua Colombia Peru Brazil

Chile Mexico Uruguay Costa Rica Brazil Colombia Peru Dominican Republic El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama

0

Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA); World Bank, 2016 Ease of Doing Business database; World Economic Forum, 2015-16 Global Competitiveness Report; and IMF staff calculations. Note: The scale reflects the percentile distribution in all countries for each respective survey; higher scores reflect higher performance. PISA = Program for International Student Assessment; WB = World Bank; WEF = World Economic Forum.

31

  



La flexibilidad del tipo de cambio sigue siendo crítica La prioridad es reconstruir y preservar amortiguadores fiscales Dadas las previsiones de crecimiento más débil y alta inflación,  La política monetaria puede continuar siendo propicia al crecimiento mientras las expectativas permanezcan ancladas  La comunicación efectiva es clave para todos los casos Las reformas estructurales y el cierre de brechas de infraestructura son imperativos para tratar el crecimiento potencial en declive.

32

Fondo Monetario Internacional 13 de mayo, 2016

Perspectivas para Latinoamérica y el Caribe: Administrando transiciones y riesgos Mario Garza Representante Residente Regional para Centroamérica, Panamá y República Dominicana