Beans
Características del mercado de frijol en México
• El consumo per cápita está disminuyendo • Costos de producción • Altos costos logísticos – Almacenaje – Transportación
• Alto riesgo asociado a temporal – 45% de la producción en Zacatecas siniestrada en 2005
El frijol pierde importancia en la dieta del mexicano Consumo de alimentos per capita Gramos al día
Carne de pollo
Huevo
Carne de cerdo Carne de res Frijol
Fuente: FAO
México esta rezagado en su productividad Ton/ha
TAAC EU
0.4%
China
4.9% 3.6%
Myanmar Brasil 3.6% México 0.7% India
Fuente: FAO, SIAP
0%
Esta no parece despegar especialmente en temporal Productividad del frijol x tecnología TAAC
Fuente: SIACON
PV riego
.86%
OI riego
1.35%
OI temporal
-0.28%
PV temporal
-1.54%
Estructura de costos comparada entre México y Estados Unidos $6,573 pesos/ton Agua Costo financiero Combustibles
Otros costos Mano de obra Costo financiero Reparaciones Combustibles Seguros Fertilizantes
1.6x $4,045pesos/ton
Fertilizantes Seguros Pesticidas Transporte (cosecha) Semilla
Transporte (cosecha) Pesticidas Semilla
Mano de obra
Una parte de la producción quedaría fuera de mercado ante la apertura Curva de costos variables + transporte frijol en DF Pesos - ton Precio Central* $8,700
US con Tarifa 8,954
Zacatecas US 2008 7,404
Promedio ponderado $7,520
Ver Chihuahua
Sinaloa
•Mean anual price in Central de Abasto
% de mercado
•Supply curve constructed for 14.5 million tons, more than double the 6.9 million tons consumed in the 5 states considered (DF, Edo de Mexico, Puebla, Hidalgo and Morelos) Fuente: FIRA, SIAP Se estimo el arancel de 2006 de 36%
Una parte de la producción quedaría fuera de mercado ante la apertura Curva de costos variables + transporte frijol en DF (A nivel municipal) Pesos - ton US con arancel 8,954 US 2008 7,404
% de mercado •Mean anual price in Central de Abasto •Supply curve constructed for 14.5 million tons, more than double the 6.9 million tons consumed in the 5 states considered (DF, Edo de Mexico, Puebla, Hidalgo and Morelos)
Fuente: FIRA, SIAP Se estimo el arancel de 2006 de 36%
Oportunidades en frijol enlatado Toneladas
Producción de frijoles en lata en México
Consumo de frijol en Estados Unidos
Recomendaciones • Mejorar infraestructura de transporte • Marketing – Promoción del consumo de frijol – Exportación de frijol en lata
• Reconversión – Producir variedades con mejores márgenes de comercialización – Reforzar programas de reconversión a forrajes
• Biotecnología – Reducción de costos con semilla mejorada
• Escala – Economías de escala en plantas beneficiadoras y empacadoras
• Seguros
Graph 1. Dry bean production in the world, average 2002-2006
Thousand tons
TAAC=2.2%
Source: FAO
Graph 2. Dry bean trade flows in 2005
Principales flujos en el comercio del frijol
4
2 1
1
3 3 >95% of dry bean imports in Mexico come from US
% of imports and exports per country > 85% 60-85% 35-60% 10-35% < 10%
Source: FAO Trade Database
2
Main importers
Main exporters
Graph 3. Dry bean yield evolution in main producing countries (last 10 years) CAGR
Ton/ha
US
Source: FAO and SIAP * CAGR for World is estimated to 2004 as their is not data for 2005 nor 2006
-0.4%
China
2.7%
Myamar Brazil
3.1% 4.1%
Mexico
2.0%
India
-1.3%
Graph 4. Evolution of dry bean yields by technology and harvest season last 10 years Ton / ha
CAGR Spring-irrigated
Source: Sagarpa with information from SIACON
0.9%
Autum-irrigated
0.9%
Autum-rainfed
1.2%
Spring rainfed
2.1%
Graph 5. Main bean producing States and percentage of rainfed and irrigated production in each of them 2006
90% 72% 99% 61%
Source SIAP 2006
99%
66%
80%
Graph 6. Evolution of dry bean prices in Mexico and the US (pinto and black beans retail prices)
Pesos / ton
Source: IMCO with information from SIIAP USDA
Graph 7 bean consumption in Mexico (kg per capita)
Grams consumed per day Chicken
Eggs
Beans
Source: FAO
Graph 8. Main consumption centers and producing States
Canned bean plants
Tijuana
Main consumption markets Main producers (States)
CD Obregón Torreón Monterrey San Luis Potosi Puebla
Guadalajara DF y Edo mex
Sources: Fira; Siacom
Graph 9 Dry bean imports and cupos (1997-2007) tons
Source: IMCO, elaborated with data from IQOM, Secretaría de Economía, FAO and forecasts of SIAP
Graph 10 Percentage change of relative prices of agricultural products if NAFTA was interrupted for beans
Agricultural GDP**
45 Million pesos
Source: IMCO with information from Sagarpa, INEGI, USDA and Secretaria de Economia
Graph 11 Change in prices of other agro industrial products if NAFTA was interrupted Cambio en precios de productos agroindustriales
Source: IMCO with information from Sagarpa, INEGI, USDA and Secretaria de Economia
Graph 12 Average Field Cash Cost for a ton of beans in Mexico and US (2006/07) Other 1% Financial Cost Insurance Water
$4,693 pesos /ton
Excluding collection costs as no comparable information available
x 2.2
Financial
Machinery Fertilizers
Other 1% Labour 2%
Energy
$2,134 pesos / ton
Fuel Insurance
Pesticides & Herbicides
Seeds
Fertilizer Machinery Pesticides & Herbiscides Seeds
Source: IMCO with data from Sagarpa SIAP and. North Dakota State University
Labour
Graph 13 Average Cash Cost* of bean production in Mexico with different technologies 2006 $5,323 pesos/ ton Machinery Seeds
47%
$3,626 pesos /ton Other
Fertilizers
Pesticides & Herbicides Water Energy (Electricity)
Fertilizers Machinery
Labour
Seeds
Labour
Source: IMCO with information of SIAP and FIRA
Graph 14 Average Cash Cost of bean production considering 2 shadow prices for water 2006 $5,323 pesos/ ton Machinery
6%
$5,033 pesos /ton
Seeds
Fertilizers
Water cost* $3,626 pesos /ton
Water cost**
Other Cash costs Labour
Source: IMCO with information of World Bank and SIAP
Graph 15 Average cost curve of supplying beans in Mexico City 2007 Pesos / ton US black Mx US black Mx2008 US Pinto Mx US Pinto Mx2008 Pinto Mex
Average price fall 8.6% Wholesale US price black beans
Black Mex
Production Costs
Chihuahua
Nayarit
Sinaloa
Zacatecas
Durango
producer price (black)
Total costs
Source: IMCO with information from SIAP, Aserca and Secretaria de Economia
Market share
Graph 16 Average cost curve of supplying black beans in Mexico City 2007 at municipal level for (Zacatecas, Durango and Chihuahua) Pesos / ton
US black Mex US black Mx2008 Black Mex producer price (black)
Total costs
Source: IMCO with information from SIAP, Aserca and Secretaria de Economia
Market share
Graph 17 Canned beans production in Mexico
tons
CAGR 32%
Fuente: INEGI, Encuesta Industrial Mensual
Graph 18 Dry bean apparent consumption in the United States
tons
Source: USDA
tons
Graph 19 Differences in pinto beans prices in main consumption markets in 2006 Pesos kilo wholesale market
Source: Secretaria de Economia SNIM
Graph 20 Bean stocks (thousand tons)
Source: IMCO with data from SIAP. This is a simple average of the monthly data of Stocks reported in Siap. Thius in 2006 we have 70% more stocks than the spring stocks reported by Aserca which were 122 thousand tons for all beans.
Graph 21. Changes in production cash costs of dry beans with the use of technology for Mexico City 2007 Pesos/ ton US blackMex US black 2008 US Pinto 2008 Pinto Mex
Fall in costs 14%
With certified seeds
Chihuahua
Nayarit
Sinaloa
Zacatecas
Durango
Mex Black
Original curve
Source: IMCO with information of INIFAP, SIAP, ASERCA Secretaria de Economia
Increase production 18%
Market share
Graph 22: Improvements of biotechnology in the long run in the GEM (changing the mean yield from .83 to 1 tons per hectare) Change in production
Change in quantities produced
Source: IMCO with information from INEGI and Sagarpa
Graph 23 Change in relative prices of agricultural inputs Change in the use of inputs for corn production
Source: IMCO with information from INEGI and Sagarpa
Graph 24 Imported beans in Mexico
1000 tons
CAGR = 2%
Source SIAP 2006
Graph A.3 Average Variable cost curve for Guadalajara 2007 Pesos / ton Average price fall 8.6%
US black Mex US Pinto Pinto Mex
Producer costs
Nayarit
Sinaloa
Zacatecas
Black Mex
Total costs
Source: IMCO with information from SIAP, Aserca and Secretaria de Economia
Market share
Graph A.4 Average Variable cost curve for Monterrey 2007
Pesos / ton
US Pinto
Average price fall 8.6%
US black Mex Pinto Mex
Sinaloa
Producer costs
Chihuahua
Zacatecas
Durango
Black Mex
Total costs
Source: IMCO with information from SIAP, Aserca and Secretaria de Economia
Market share
Graph A.5 Average Variable cost curve for Torreon 2007 Pesos / ton US Pinto
Average price fall 8.6%
US Pinto 2008 Pinto Mex
Chihuahua
Sinaloa
Producer costs
Total costs
Source: IMCO with information from SIAP, Aserca and Secretaria de Economia
Market share
Graph A.6 Average Variable cost curve for Cd Obregon 2007 Pesos / ton Average price fall 8.6%
Chihuahua
US Pinto US Pinto 2008 Pinto Mex
Sinaloa
Producer costs
Total costs
Source: IMCO with information from SIAP, Aserca and Secretaria de Economia
Market share
Graph A.7 Average Variable cost curve for Tijuana 2007 Pesos / ton US black Mex US Pinto Black Mex Pinto Mex US Black 2008 US Pinto 2008
Chihuahua
Average price fall 9.3%
Sinaloa
Producer costs
Total costs
Source: IMCO with information from SIAP, Aserca and Secretaria de Economia
Market share
