Minimum wages: do they really hurt young people? - Banco de España

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MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE? Sofía Galán and Sergio Puente

Documentos de Trabajo N.º 1237

2012

MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE?

MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE?

Sofía Galán (*) and Sergio Puente (**) BANCO DE ESPAÑA

(*) [email protected]. (**) [email protected].

Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 1237 2012

The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and finance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment. The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the INTERNET at the following website: http://www.bde.es.

Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. © BANCO DE ESPAÑA, Madrid, 2012 ISSN: 1579-8666 (on line)

Abstract

We estimate the effects of a significant increase in the minimum wage in Spain between 2004 and 2010 on the individual probability of losing employment, using a large panel of social security records. Our main finding is that older people experienced the largest increase in the probability of losing their job, when compared with other age groups, including young people. The intuition is simple: among the affected (low-productivity) workers, young people are expected to increase their productivity more than older ones, who are in the flat part of their life-cycle productivity curve. Consequently, an employer facing a uniform increase in the minimum wage may find it profitable to retain young employees and to fire older ones. Keywords: Minimum wage, labour demand, firing. JEL classification: J23, J38, J63.

Resumen

Este artículo estima los efectos de la intensa subida del salario mínimo que se produjo en España entre los años 2004 y 2010 sobre la probabilidad individual de perder el empleo, utilizando datos de registros de la Seguridad Social. El principal resultado es que el mayor incremento en la probabilidad de perder el empleo se produjo entre los trabajadores de mayor edad, incluso cuando se los compara con los más jóvenes. La intuición de este resultado es sencilla: entre los trabajadores (de baja productividad) afectados, es de esperar que los más jóvenes experimenten incrementos de productividad superiores a los de los más mayores, que están ya en la parte plana de su ciclo vital de productividad. En consecuencia, un empleador que se enfrente a un incremento uniforme del salario mínimo puede encontrar ventajoso retener a los trabajadores jóvenes y despedir a los mayores. Palabras claves: salario mínimo, demanda de trabajo, despidos. Códigos JEL: J23, J38, J63.



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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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1230

MATTEO LUCIANI and DAVID VEREDAS: A model for vast panels of volatilities.

1231

AITOR ERCE: Does the IMF’s official support affect sovereign bond maturities?

1232

JAVIER MENCÍA and ENRIQUE SENTANA: Valuation of VIX derivatives.

1233

ROSSANA MEROLA and JAVIER J. PÉREZ: Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?

1234

MIGUEL GARCÍA-POSADA and JUAN S. MORA-SANGUINETTI: Why do Spanish firms rarely use the bankruptcy system? The role of the mortgage institution.

1235

MAXIMO CAMACHO, YULIYA LOVCHA and GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS: Can we use seasonally adjusted indicators in dynamic factor models?

1236

JENS HAGENDORFF, MARÍA J. NIETO and LARRY D. WALL: The safety and soundness effects of bank M&As in the EU: Does prudential regulation have any impact?

1237

SOFÍA GALÁN and SERGIO PUENTE: Minimum wages: do they really hurt young people?

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