MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE? Sofía Galán and Sergio Puente
Documentos de Trabajo N.º 1237
2012
MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE?
MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE?
Sofía Galán (*) and Sergio Puente (**) BANCO DE ESPAÑA
(*)
[email protected]. (**)
[email protected].
Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 1237 2012
The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and finance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment. The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.
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Abstract
We estimate the effects of a significant increase in the minimum wage in Spain between 2004 and 2010 on the individual probability of losing employment, using a large panel of social security records. Our main finding is that older people experienced the largest increase in the probability of losing their job, when compared with other age groups, including young people. The intuition is simple: among the affected (low-productivity) workers, young people are expected to increase their productivity more than older ones, who are in the flat part of their life-cycle productivity curve. Consequently, an employer facing a uniform increase in the minimum wage may find it profitable to retain young employees and to fire older ones. Keywords: Minimum wage, labour demand, firing. JEL classification: J23, J38, J63.
Resumen
Este artículo estima los efectos de la intensa subida del salario mínimo que se produjo en España entre los años 2004 y 2010 sobre la probabilidad individual de perder el empleo, utilizando datos de registros de la Seguridad Social. El principal resultado es que el mayor incremento en la probabilidad de perder el empleo se produjo entre los trabajadores de mayor edad, incluso cuando se los compara con los más jóvenes. La intuición de este resultado es sencilla: entre los trabajadores (de baja productividad) afectados, es de esperar que los más jóvenes experimenten incrementos de productividad superiores a los de los más mayores, que están ya en la parte plana de su ciclo vital de productividad. En consecuencia, un empleador que se enfrente a un incremento uniforme del salario mínimo puede encontrar ventajoso retener a los trabajadores jóvenes y despedir a los mayores. Palabras claves: salario mínimo, demanda de trabajo, despidos. Códigos JEL: J23, J38, J63.
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BANCO DE ESPAÑA
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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BANCO DE ESPAÑA
12
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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BANCO DE ESPAÑA
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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BANCO DE ESPAÑA
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
6GDQD L HR SGD QD@K LNMSGKX LHMHLTL V@FD NE HMCHUHCT@K H HM LNMSG S @MC V@FD HR SGD HMCHUHCT@KLNMSGKXQD@KV@FDNESGDR@LDHMCHUHCT@KHMLNMSGS 3GDCHEEDQDMBDHMSGDADG@UHNTQ NE SGD @EEDBSDC FQNTO @MC SGD BNLO@QHRNM FQNTOR @ESDQ BNMSQNKKHMF ENQ HMCHUHCT@K BG@Q@BSDQHRSHBR B@M AD HMSDQOQDSDC @R SGD DEEDBS NE SGD LHMHLTL V@FD 2N VD G@UD SVN FQNTOR NMD NE SGDL VHSG V@FDF@O VGHBG HMBKTCDR SGD SVN BNLO@QHRNM FQNTOR CDEHMDC @ANUD@MCSGDNSGDQVHSGV@FDF@OVGHBGBNQQDRONMCRSNSGD@EEDBSDCFQNTO 6DOQNONRD SGDENKKNVHMF+NFHSLNCDKENQSGDOQNA@AHKHSXNEKNRHMFDLOKNXLDMS ൣ݀ǡ௧ ൌ ͳ൧ ൌ ߉൛ߚᇱ ݔǡ௧ ߠܽ݃݁݃ܽݓǡ௧ ߙ݁݃ܽݓǡ௧ ߔᇱ ݃ǡ௧ ൟ 6GDQD Ȧ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Ʌ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݃௧ HR@RDSNECTLLHDRVGHBGHMBKTCDLNMSGXD@Q@MCSGDHMSDQ@BSHNMNELNMSG@MC SGDU@QH@AKDV@FDF@O@RBNMSQNKRENQL@BQNDBNMNLHB@MCRD@RNM@KDEEDBSR 6D @CC SN SGD OQDUHNTR RODBHEHB@SHNM @M HMSDQ@BSHNM ADSVDDM V@FDF@O @MC @FD FQNTO 6D TRD SGHR HMSDQ@BSHNM ADB@TRD VD V@MS SN @RBDQS@HM VGDSGDQ SGD DEEDBS NE LHMHLTL V@FDR CHEEDQR @BBNQCHMF SN SGD @FD NE VNQJDQR 3GD DEEDBS BNTKC ADCHEEDQDMS @R @ QDRTKSNE CHEEDQDMS OQNCTBSHUHSXFQNVSGQ@SDR@BQNRR@FDFQNTOR %HFTQD RGNVR QD@K V@FD FQNVSG AX @FD 3GHR FQ@OG RGNVR SG@S SGD L@WHLTL V@FD HMBQD@RDR @QD RDDM HM SGD HMSDQLDCH@SD @FD FQNTOR CDRBDMCHMF @R SGD @FD HMBQD@RDR TMSHK QD@BGHMF@LHMHLTLENQNKCDQVNQJDQRNE@QNTMC !XFDMCDQVDB@MRDDSG@SSGDHMBQD@RD HMVNLDMRV@FDRHRKNVDQENQ@KK@FDFQNTORDWBDOSSGDNKCDRSVGDQDHMBQD@RDR@QDRHLHK@QSN
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BANCO DE ESPAÑA
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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16
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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lDLOKNXDC A@RHR ENQ SGD R@LD QD@RNMR DWOK@HMDC ADENQD 'DMBD VD G@UD OQNONRDC @MNSGDQ LTKSHMNLH@K +NFHS ENQ @M@KXRHMF SGD SQ@MRHSHNM SN TMDLOKNXLDMS SN @ KNVDQ NBBTO@SHNM@KB@SDFNQXNQSNRDKE DLOKNXLDMSVGHBGVDVHKKQDEDQSN@Rf,TKSHMNLH@Kt (MSGHR B@RDVDG@UDCDEHMDC@B@SDFNQXU@QH@AKD,HSSG@SS@JDRENTQONRRHAKDU@KTDRVGDMSGD VNQJDQ BNMSHMTDR VNQJHMF @R @M DLOKNXDD @MC HM SGD R@LD NQ HM @ GHFGDQ NBBTO@SHNM@K B@SDFNQXSVDKUDLNMSGRK@SDQS @MCHMSGDR@LDB@RDR@RCDEHMDC@ANUD@MCEHM@KKX VGDMSGDVNQJDQBNMSHMTDRVNQJHMF@R@MDLOKNXDDATSHM@KNVDQNBBTO@SHNM@KB@SDFNQX HMS 6HSGSGDRDSGQDDCHEEDQDMSLNCDKRVDBNUDQ@KKSGDONRRHAKDSQ@MRHSHNMR@EEDBSHMFVNQJDQRSG@S BNTKC G@UD ADDM HMEKTDMBDC AX SGD HMBQD@RD HM SGD QD@K LHMHLTL V@FD HM SGD ODQHNC
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
17
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
1DRTKSROQNA@AHKHSXNEKNRHMFDLOKNXLDMS
3GD R@LOKD HR QDRSQHBSDC SN SGNRD @FDC ADSVDDM @MC HM KNV NBBTO@SHNM@K B@SDFNQHDR VGN G@C @ QDK@SHNMRGHO VHSG SGD 2NBH@K 2DBTQHSX 2XRSDL (M SGD EHQRS BNKTLM NE 3@AKD VD OQDRDMSSGDDRSHL@SHNMQDRTKSRENQNTQADMBGL@QJLNCDKHMVGHBGSGDCDODMCDMSU@QH@AKD CHS LD@RTQDRSGDOQNA@AHKHSXNEMNSVNQJHMF@MXC@XHMLNMSGS BNMCHSHNM@KNMVNQJHMFETKK SHLDSGDDMSHQDLNMSGHMS KKRODBHEHB@SHNMRHMBKTCD@MHMSDQ@BSHNMSDQLNE@FDVHSGANSGV@FD@MCV@FDF@O@RVDKK@R NSGDQBNMSQNKU@QH@AKDR 2S@MC@QCDQQNQR@QDHMO@QDMSGDRDRHMD@BGB@RD 4A B LE 0ROBABILITYOFLOSINGEMPLOYMENT-ARGINALEFFECTSINPERCENTAGEPOINTSFORDIFFERENTSPECIFICATIONSOF,OGITMODEL
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
4OTAL
7OMEN
-EN
*ANUARYONLY
MONTHS
7AGEGAP! YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP YEARSOLDEURO
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
q q
q
7AGEGAP YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP MORETHANYEARSOLDEURO
3PANISHNATIONALITY
$UMMYTEMPORARYCONTRACT
q
q
q
q
q
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBER YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS OVERYEARSOLD
7AGE MORETHANYEARSOLDEURO
4ENUREINTHEFIRMDAYS
.OTES/THERCONTROLVARIABLES9EARANDMONTHDUMMIES AGEGROUP MULTIPLEJOB HOLDINGANDTHEINTERACTIONBETWEENMONTHANDWAGEGAP !7AGEGAPISONLYFORWORKERSWHORECEIVEASALARYLOWERT HANREALMINIMUMWAGEINT
3 IGNIFICANTATLEVEL
3 IGNIFICANTATLEVEL
3 IGNIFICANTAT LEVEL 4HISMODELISLIKEOURBENCHMARK BUTUSINGONLY*ANUARYOBSERVATIONS 4HISMODELISONLYESTIMATEDF ORANDANDT HEEMPLOYMENTSTATUSMONTHSLATER
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
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
18
3GDRDSVNK@SSDQQDRSQHBSHNMR@QDMDDCDCSNDMRTQDSG@SSGDNARDQUDCV@FDHRBNLO@Q@AKDSNSGDLHMHLTL
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
19
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
6D RDD SG@S SGD FQD@SDRS DEEDBSR @QD HM SGD BNMRSQTBSHNM RDBSNQ @KSGNTFG HM @KK RDBSNQR SGD DEEDBSENQNKCDQVNQJDQRHRONRHSHUD@MCRHFMHEHB@MSKXCHEEDQDMSEQNLYDQN@MCSGDL@QFHM@KDEEDBS HR FQD@SDQ ENQ NKCDQ VNQJDQR SG@M ENQ XNTMF VNQJDQR 3GDQDENQD SGD L@HM BNMBKTRHNM HR L@HMS@HMDC %NQ SGD QDRS NE SGD U@QH@AKDR SGD QDRTKSR @QD RHLHK@Q SN SGNRD NAS@HMDC VHSG SGD @FFQDF@SDLNCDKVHSGRNLDCHEEDQDMBDRHMSGDDEEDBSNECDODMC@MSRHMSGDE@LHKXAXRDBSNQ
4A BLE 0ROBABILITYOFLOSINGEMPLOYMENT-ARGINALEFFECTSINPERCENTAGEPOINTSFORSECTOR ESPECIFICATIONSOF,OGITMODEL
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
4OTAL
)NDUSTRY
#ONSTRUCTION
3ERVICES
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
7AGEGAP! YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP MORETHANYEARSOLDEURO
3PANISHNATIONALITY
$UMMYTEMPORARYCONTRACT
q
q
q
q
q
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBER YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS OVERYEARSOLD
7AGE MORETHANYEARSOLDEURO
4ENUREINTHEFIRMDAYS
.OT ES/THERCONT ROLVARIABLES9EARANDMONTHDUMMIES AGEGROUP MULT IPLEJOB HOLDINGANDT HEINTERACT IONBET WEENMONT HANDWAGEGAP !7AGEGAPISONLYFORWORKERSWHORECEIVEASALARYLOWERT HANREALMINIMUMWAGEINT
3 IGNIF ICANT ATLEVEL
3IGNIFICANT AT LEVEL
3 IGNIF ICANTATLEVEL 4HEAGRICULT URESECTORCANNOTBEANALYSEDBECAUSEIT HASASPECIAL3 OCIAL3ECURIT YREGIMEANDHENCET HEREARENOTENOUGHOBSERVAT IONS
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
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
20
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
21
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
4A BLE 0ROBABILITYOFLOSINGEMPLOYMENT-ARGINALEFFECTSINPERCENTAGEPOINTSFORDIFFERENTSPECIFICATIONSOF,OGITMODELWITH 4ABLE SECONDGROUPOFAFFECTEDWORKERS 4OTAL
7OMEN
-EN
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
7AGEGAP! YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP MORETHANYEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP?" YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP? YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP? YEARSOLDEURO
7AGEGAP? MORETHANYEARSOLDEURO
3PANISHNATIONALITY
$UMMYTEMPORARYCONTRACT
q
q
q
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBER YEARSOLD
/THERFAMILYMEMBERS OVERYEARSOLD
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
7AGE YEARSOLDEURO
7AGE MORETHANYEARSOLDEURO
4ENUREINTHEFIRMDAYS
q
.OTES/THERCONTROLVARIABLES9EARANDMONTHDUMMIES AGEGROUP MULTIPLEJOB HOLDINGANDTHEINTERACTIONBETWEENMONTHANDWAGEGAP !7AGEGAPISONLYFORWORKERSWHORECEIVEASALARYLOWERTHANREALMINIMUMWAGEINT "7AGEGAP?ISONLYFORWORKERSWHORECEIVEAWAGETHATISHIGHERTHANTHEREALMINIMUMWAGEINT BUTBYLESSTHAN
3 IGNIFICANTATLEVEL
3 IGNIFICANTATLEVEL
3 IGNIFICANTATLEVEL
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
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237
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