MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE? Sofía Galán and Sergio Puente

Documentos de Trabajo N.º 1237

2012

MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE?

MINIMUM WAGES: DO THEY REALLY HURT YOUNG PEOPLE?

Sofía Galán (*) and Sergio Puente (**) BANCO DE ESPAÑA

(*) [email protected]. (**) [email protected].

Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 1237 2012

The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and finance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment. The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the INTERNET at the following website: http://www.bde.es.

Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. © BANCO DE ESPAÑA, Madrid, 2012 ISSN: 1579-8666 (on line)

Abstract

We estimate the effects of a significant increase in the minimum wage in Spain between 2004 and 2010 on the individual probability of losing employment, using a large panel of social security records. Our main finding is that older people experienced the largest increase in the probability of losing their job, when compared with other age groups, including young people. The intuition is simple: among the affected (low-productivity) workers, young people are expected to increase their productivity more than older ones, who are in the flat part of their life-cycle productivity curve. Consequently, an employer facing a uniform increase in the minimum wage may find it profitable to retain young employees and to fire older ones. Keywords: Minimum wage, labour demand, firing. JEL classification: J23, J38, J63.

Resumen

Este artículo estima los efectos de la intensa subida del salario mínimo que se produjo en España entre los años 2004 y 2010 sobre la probabilidad individual de perder el empleo, utilizando datos de registros de la Seguridad Social. El principal resultado es que el mayor incremento en la probabilidad de perder el empleo se produjo entre los trabajadores de mayor edad, incluso cuando se los compara con los más jóvenes. La intuición de este resultado es sencilla: entre los trabajadores (de baja productividad) afectados, es de esperar que los más jóvenes experimenten incrementos de productividad superiores a los de los más mayores, que están ya en la parte plana de su ciclo vital de productividad. En consecuencia, un empleador que se enfrente a un incremento uniforme del salario mínimo puede encontrar ventajoso retener a los trabajadores jóvenes y despedir a los mayores. Palabras claves: salario mínimo, demanda de trabajo, despidos. Códigos JEL: J23, J38, J63.



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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237



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3GDRDSVNK@SSDQQDRSQHBSHNMR@QDMDDCDCSNDMRTQDSG@SSGDNARDQUDCV@FDHRBNLO@Q@AKDSNSGDLHMHLTL 

DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1237

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AITOR ERCE: Does the IMF’s official support affect sovereign bond maturities?

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JAVIER MENCÍA and ENRIQUE SENTANA: Valuation of VIX derivatives.

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ROSSANA MEROLA and JAVIER J. PÉREZ: Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?

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MIGUEL GARCÍA-POSADA and JUAN S. MORA-SANGUINETTI: Why do Spanish firms rarely use the bankruptcy system? The role of the mortgage institution.

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MAXIMO CAMACHO, YULIYA LOVCHA and GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS: Can we use seasonally adjusted indicators in dynamic factor models?

1236

JENS HAGENDORFF, MARÍA J. NIETO and LARRY D. WALL: The safety and soundness effects of bank M&As in the EU: Does prudential regulation have any impact?

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SOFÍA GALÁN and SERGIO PUENTE: Minimum wages: do they really hurt young people?

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