APEC
Centro AGRIMED Facultad de Ciencia Agronómicas Universidad de Chile Smallholders’ Response to New Climate Scenarios regarding Sustainable Water Use as a Contribution to Food Security
Climate Change Context in Chile Santiago 29-30 of November, 2017
Maximum annual temperature
Temperature is changing fast Since the year 2000 !
Despite this, in this region climate change will be slowed by the Pacific Ocean
Annual rainfall has fallen about 20% during the 20th century Annual rainfall has fallen about 20% during the 20th century La Serena Serena Annual rainfall has fallen about 20% during the 20thLa century 500
-0.6 mm/year
400 300 200
Climate Change Evidence In Chile
100 0
Santiago Santiago
800
- mm/year -0.6
600
Anual rainfall has fallen about 20% in the last century.
400 200
0
Concepción Concepción
-3.9 mm/year -
PuertoMontt Montt Puerto
- mm/year -5.7
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
4000 3000 2000 1000 0
Anual rainfall could drop by 20 to 30% along this century
Expected change on maximum temperature +2°C is posible in the next decades VARIACIÓN TXE (C) VARIACIÓN TXE
33 2,6
2,8
2,7
2,6 2,4 2,2 2,1
2070 22
2,3
2
2,2 2
2
2,1
2,1
Coyhaique
Puerto Montt
Valdivia
Temuco
Concepción
Talca
Rancagua
Valparaíso
Quillota
La Serena
Copiapó
Antofagasta
Putre
HOY 0
Arica
2040 11
Punta Arenas
1
Expected change on mínimum temperatura +1 to +2°C is posible in the next 5 decades VARIACIÓN TNJ (C) VARIACIÓN TNJ 4
33 2,8
3 2,4 2,3
1,3
1,2
1,2
1,6
1,6
Punta Arenas
1,5
Valdivia
1,6
Temuco
1,5
Concepción
C
1,6
Coyhaique
1,9
22
1,3
11
Puerto Montt
Talca
Rancagua
Valparaíso
Quillota
La Serena
Copiapó
Antofagasta
Putre
Arica
0
The path to the adaptation to a new climate context VACEA Variability VACEA Crop models
Variability of extreme events drougth, frosts, heat waves, storms
Impacts on crop production Yields, losses, seasonality
vulnerability reduction VACEA Vulnerability
socio-economic consequences income, labour, production chains
Mitigation actions
Public policies
Subsidies, credit, insurance
promotion mechanisms, infraestructure, capacity building
Negative externalities migrations, rural poverty, social marginality
VACEA Adaptación
The footprint of cimate change in Chile…..
Some of the signs….. Santiago 2500
Evapotranspiración de referencia
2300 2100 1500
1900
Horas de frio
1400
1700
1300
2500
1300
1100
1000
900
1100
Horas de frio
1500
ET0
El cambio climático no es futuro, es presente…. 1200
800 1970
900
2000 1500 1000 1975
1980
500 1960
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Año
1980 2000 Años
2020
700 500 1960
1970
1980
1990 Años
2000
Rising temperature ….. down….. Freatic depth is going Stresed hydrological bisins….. higher evapotranspiration rates….. milder winters….. Declining anual rainfall …..
2010
2020
To start an adaptation process, It is essential to answer the…
¿What, when and where?..will happend what changes will experience the climate? which are the dimensions of those changes? where the chages will be? How climate changes will affect agriculture?
Expected variations on anual rainfall during this century VARIACIÓN PPA (mm) 150
The w ter h le f this century…
100
102
50
mm de precipitación
0 -3
-8
-2
-3
-9
-50 -61
-100
-75
-86
VARIACIÓN PPA -119
-150
-121 -168
-200
-223
-250
-231 -263
400 to 500 millions m3 is the present wáter deficit
11 throusands millions of m3 are available mainly in winter
Punta Arenas
Coyhaique
Puerto Montt
Valdivia
Temuco
Concepción
Talca
Rancagua
Valparaíso
Quillota
La Serena
Copiapó
Antofagasta
Putre
Arica
-300
some progresses answering these questions
maximum temperature of the warmest month
minimum temperature of the coldest month
length of the dry period
anual frost
anual rainfall
Climate change scenarios in the Americas
Projections over the American continent
Min Temp Coldest month
máximum temperatura of the warmest month
rainfed corn production Dryfarm maize yield
Rainfed wheat yield
Climate change scenarios on high resolution (Ensamble made with three selected models for RCP 8.5). VACEA project, AGRIMED, University of Chile
Warm days, degree days, Water deficit, potential evapotranspiration, water surplus, chilling hours, aridity index, humid season-dry season lenght, frost free season, annual rainfall.
There are many uncertainties that climate change will create:
Yields Water consumption Products quality
Sanitary context
Could fall due to thermal stress forcing technological changes Could increase due to higher evapotranspiration rates Problems that are currently occasional may be intensified: sunburn, browning, softening, dehydration. Problems could intensify due to the increase in insect and microbial populations and inocula .
Some technological changes for adaptation Anti-stress protection system (mesh, blankets, chemical screens, windbreaks
Agriculture in controlled environments Land use changes, new emerging areas Highly efficient irrigation systems Agroclimatic risk management New more resistent to physical stress varieties
Impacts on agricultural potential in Chile: the good and the bad sides VACEA project has made an important effort in calibrating the SIMPROC model for the whole continent, in order to have an evaluation tool to foresee the changes in climatic suitability for different cultivated species.
suitability for cherry production
Potential improves to the South
suitability for walnut production
we will need more technology to recue walnut
suitability for avocado production
A positive future
suitability for vine production
moving traditions?
The concept and the meaning of vulnerability
How vulnerable is ?
Human Capitaldevelopment and technologywhy it is vulnerable ? Vulnerability
Rurality land ownership Access to water
how to reduce its vulnerability?
vulnerability index
Risk managements
A
Poblic policies
Institutional capacities
Adaptation
Promotion mechanisms international cooperation
U
Land use
Information
+
T Technology
+
G New sources of wáter Management and energy
Research
Early warning systems Capacity building
Production technology
Seguro agrícola New genetic material
Adaptation is a complex process requiring to advance in all its components.
We still have many unanswered questions and tasks wich requires a trasndisciplinary approach going from physical sciences until human sciences.
Small farmers are the most vulnerable, they risk to be marginalised if we do not find the way to reduce their vulnerability, imporving the their acces to new technologies, to wáter and knowledge. Water availability and management will play a key role on the adaptation succes of different countries.
Thank you