APEC

Centro AGRIMED Facultad de Ciencia Agronómicas Universidad de Chile Smallholders’ Response to New Climate Scenarios regarding Sustainable Water Use as a Contribution to Food Security

Climate Change Context in Chile Santiago 29-30 of November, 2017

Maximum annual temperature

Temperature is changing fast Since the year 2000 !

Despite this, in this region climate change will be slowed by the Pacific Ocean

Annual rainfall has fallen about 20% during the 20th century Annual rainfall has fallen about 20% during the 20th century La Serena Serena Annual rainfall has fallen about 20% during the 20thLa century 500

-0.6 mm/year

400 300 200

Climate Change Evidence In Chile

100 0

Santiago Santiago

800

- mm/year -0.6

600

Anual rainfall has fallen about 20% in the last century.

400 200

0

Concepción Concepción

-3.9 mm/year -

PuertoMontt Montt Puerto

- mm/year -5.7

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Anual rainfall could drop by 20 to 30% along this century

Expected change on maximum temperature +2°C is posible in the next decades VARIACIÓN TXE (C) VARIACIÓN TXE

33 2,6

2,8

2,7

2,6 2,4 2,2 2,1

2070 22

2,3

2

2,2 2

2

2,1

2,1

Coyhaique

Puerto Montt

Valdivia

Temuco

Concepción

Talca

Rancagua

Valparaíso

Quillota

La Serena

Copiapó

Antofagasta

Putre

HOY 0

Arica

2040 11

Punta Arenas

1

Expected change on mínimum temperatura +1 to +2°C is posible in the next 5 decades VARIACIÓN TNJ (C) VARIACIÓN TNJ 4

33 2,8

3 2,4 2,3

1,3

1,2

1,2

1,6

1,6

Punta Arenas

1,5

Valdivia

1,6

Temuco

1,5

Concepción

C

1,6

Coyhaique

1,9

22

1,3

11

Puerto Montt

Talca

Rancagua

Valparaíso

Quillota

La Serena

Copiapó

Antofagasta

Putre

Arica

0

The path to the adaptation to a new climate context VACEA Variability VACEA Crop models

Variability of extreme events drougth, frosts, heat waves, storms

Impacts on crop production Yields, losses, seasonality

vulnerability reduction VACEA Vulnerability

socio-economic consequences income, labour, production chains

Mitigation actions

Public policies

Subsidies, credit, insurance

promotion mechanisms, infraestructure, capacity building

Negative externalities migrations, rural poverty, social marginality

VACEA Adaptación

The footprint of cimate change in Chile…..

Some of the signs….. Santiago 2500

Evapotranspiración de referencia

2300 2100 1500

1900

Horas de frio

1400

1700

1300

2500

1300

1100

1000

900

1100

Horas de frio

1500

ET0

El cambio climático no es futuro, es presente…. 1200

800 1970

900

2000 1500 1000 1975

1980

500 1960

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Año

1980 2000 Años

2020

700 500 1960

1970

1980

1990 Años

2000

Rising temperature ….. down….. Freatic depth is going Stresed hydrological bisins….. higher evapotranspiration rates….. milder winters….. Declining anual rainfall …..

2010

2020

To start an adaptation process, It is essential to answer the…

¿What, when and where?..will happend what changes will experience the climate? which are the dimensions of those changes? where the chages will be? How climate changes will affect agriculture?

Expected variations on anual rainfall during this century VARIACIÓN PPA (mm) 150

The w ter h le f this century…

100

102

50

mm de precipitación

0 -3

-8

-2

-3

-9

-50 -61

-100

-75

-86

VARIACIÓN PPA -119

-150

-121 -168

-200

-223

-250

-231 -263

400 to 500 millions m3 is the present wáter deficit

11 throusands millions of m3 are available mainly in winter

Punta Arenas

Coyhaique

Puerto Montt

Valdivia

Temuco

Concepción

Talca

Rancagua

Valparaíso

Quillota

La Serena

Copiapó

Antofagasta

Putre

Arica

-300

some progresses answering these questions

maximum temperature of the warmest month

minimum temperature of the coldest month

length of the dry period

anual frost

anual rainfall

Climate change scenarios in the Americas

Projections over the American continent

Min Temp Coldest month

máximum temperatura of the warmest month

rainfed corn production Dryfarm maize yield

Rainfed wheat yield

Climate change scenarios on high resolution (Ensamble made with three selected models for RCP 8.5). VACEA project, AGRIMED, University of Chile

Warm days, degree days, Water deficit, potential evapotranspiration, water surplus, chilling hours, aridity index, humid season-dry season lenght, frost free season, annual rainfall.

There are many uncertainties that climate change will create:

Yields Water consumption Products quality

Sanitary context

Could fall due to thermal stress forcing technological changes Could increase due to higher evapotranspiration rates Problems that are currently occasional may be intensified: sunburn, browning, softening, dehydration. Problems could intensify due to the increase in insect and microbial populations and inocula .

Some technological changes for adaptation Anti-stress protection system (mesh, blankets, chemical screens, windbreaks

Agriculture in controlled environments Land use changes, new emerging areas Highly efficient irrigation systems Agroclimatic risk management New more resistent to physical stress varieties

Impacts on agricultural potential in Chile: the good and the bad sides VACEA project has made an important effort in calibrating the SIMPROC model for the whole continent, in order to have an evaluation tool to foresee the changes in climatic suitability for different cultivated species.

suitability for cherry production

Potential improves to the South

suitability for walnut production

we will need more technology to recue walnut

suitability for avocado production

A positive future

suitability for vine production

moving traditions?

The concept and the meaning of vulnerability

How vulnerable is ?

Human Capitaldevelopment and technologywhy it is vulnerable ? Vulnerability

Rurality land ownership Access to water

how to reduce its vulnerability?

vulnerability index

Risk managements

A

Poblic policies

Institutional capacities

Adaptation

Promotion mechanisms international cooperation

U

Land use

Information

+

T Technology

+

G New sources of wáter Management and energy

Research

Early warning systems Capacity building

Production technology

Seguro agrícola New genetic material

Adaptation is a complex process requiring to advance in all its components.

We still have many unanswered questions and tasks wich requires a trasndisciplinary approach going from physical sciences until human sciences.

Small farmers are the most vulnerable, they risk to be marginalised if we do not find the way to reduce their vulnerability, imporving the their acces to new technologies, to wáter and knowledge. Water availability and management will play a key role on the adaptation succes of different countries.

Thank you