EY Global IPO Trends 2016 3Q
Uncertainty suppressing IPO activity, but the pipeline is building A mostly steady third quarter in overall global IPO activity compared with 2Q16 masked very sharp regional differences. Asia-Pacific powered ahead, driven by receding concerns of a slowdown in the growth rate in Mainland China and a supportive regulatory environment, while US activity was subdued ahead of the presidential elections and activity in EMEIA declined in the wake of the UK Brexit vote.
announcement in J anuary that it would hold a referendum on European Union ( EU) membership in J une. A plethora of other geopolitical factors have added to the uncertainty, including the Middle East tension and the migrant crisis, as well as concerns of a slowdown in growth rate in Mainland C hina and uncertainty over US monetary policy. R arely, if ever, has there been a year with quite so many complex inter related external factors for decision ma ers to contend ith and ait upon for a de nitive outcome
At US$ 3 5 .4 b, global IPO proceeds in 3 Q 16 were up 16 % on 2Q 16 , while deal volume declined by 4 % to 25 2 IPOs. C ompared with 3 Q 15 , IPO activity levels were relatively strong, with proceeds up by 8 4 % and the number of deals up by 21% .
Some of the uncertainties are near- term, such as the N ovember US election, while others will be more protracted. C urrently, there is little clarity on hat form Brexit ill actually ta e or hen it ill ta e place and uncertainty is set to persist
n terms of regional comparisons sia aci c exchanges were the standout performers in 3 Q 16 , with a 13 8 % surge in proceeds to US$ 24 .2b on a 4 1% increase in deal numbers compared with the prior quarter. In contrast, EMEIA IPO proceeds slumped by 6 9 % to US$ 4 .4 b and deal volumes were do n by to s exchanges ran ed third by proceeds and second by deal numbers. In the US, capital raised rose slightly by 3 % to US$ 6 .4 b, but deal volumes declined by 3 % on levels to s he exchanges ran ed second by proceeds and third by deal numbers in 3 Q 16 .
gainst this bac drop it is perhaps unsurprising that many have decided to focus their energies on preparing their listing for 2017, deciding that it is better to be patient. T his is particularly the case given the availability of other forms of nance in developed mar ets ith private capital readily available an IPO is as much about branding and credibility as fundraising and exiting cautious and patient approach is understandable especially for unicorns, that have the interest of going public. e expect more unicorns ill list next year fueled by recent technology IPO performances and when conditions are more favorable.
his variable performance and the particularly ea start to 2016 means that year- to- date, global activity is still lagging behind levels lobally for the rst nine months of IPO proceeds of US$ 79 .4 b are 3 9 % lower than in the same period last year and deal volumes are down by 23 % to 704 IPOs from 9 13 in the same period last year. …
even w hen the f u nda m enta ls a re im p roving Uncertainty has succeeded in subduing IPO activity in the face of a growing list of supportive economic factors, including:
Politica l u ncerta inty tru m p s econom ic f u nda m enta ls … olitical uncertainty concerning Brexit and the elections rather than the events themselves, is causing private companies to delay their decisions on when to list. In addition, s are executed locally but investors are approached globally, so uncertainty spreads beyond the region where the IPO originates. T he tone for both business and investor sentiment was set early in the year. T he political unpredictability of a US presidential election year as al ays expected to eigh on sentiment his as uic ly compounded by the s
IPO sentim ent ra da r Our radar contains a variety of mar et factors that may impact investor sentiment for IPOs. Pre- IPO companies should be aware of how these factors may affect their business and ultimately the timing and value of their transaction.
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•
hort and long term interest rates are at extremely lo levels and are li ely to remain so as the monetary policies of the ma or global central ban s are ept accommodative post Brexit •
ith real interest rates negative in many countries investors are being pushed into ta ing e uity ris to generate higher returns, which has helped equity indices push higher following the immediate post Brexit decline s a result the improving trend of recent years in both trailing and forward P/ E ratios for many equity indices continues, helping to support IPO sentiment.
Potentia l im p a ct
Oil prices Impact of UK referendum
Prepare for more narrow IPO windows •
Preserve optionality with early IPO readiness preparations •
onsider an array of exit alternatives •
eed for flexibility in timing and pricing
Interest ra te cha nges
•
U S elections Short-term volatility Currency
G eopolitical uncertainties Economic growth G old price
•
olatility in many e uity mar ets has fallen or example in Europe, volatility has fallen to its lowest level since September 2015 .
•
• T he direst economic predictions regarding the fallout from Brexit have not fully materiali ed he nternational onetary und described Brexit as thro ing a spanner in the or s of global gro th but then only do ngraded its expectations for gro th this year and next year by orecasts by many for a recession have been reversed oncerns of a slo do n in hina s gro th rate and a sharp depreciation of the renminbi have receded. Cyclica l im p rovem ent su p p orts ex isting p ref erence f or IPOs in Asia-Pacific sia aci c has been the region most able to shrug off global political uncertainty so far this year he region s impressive performance has been led by G reater C hina, where improving economic conditions have increased con dence and lessened concerns of a sharp slowdown in the growth rate, which had weighed on investor sentiment at the start of the year. his cyclical improvement or s in the same direction to support IPO activity as a distinct structural preference for public mar ets n contrast to the here private companies are now achieving similar, or at times higher valuations than public companies, in C hina the valuation gap still favors public companies ma ing s the route of choice T his is not purely a question of the availability of private capital. In C hina, public companies offer investors liquidity and are perceived as being more transparent and better regulated. Public companies in C hina are also able to attract talent and their reputation helps when bidding for contracts. All of these factors may help to explain hy investors are prepared to pay a premium for C hinese private companies as they enter the public mar ets G lob a l IPO a ctivity ha s a m ix ed ou tlook f or the rest of 2 016 iven the extreme ea ness at the start of the year as the slo est uarter since global activity in is unli ely to match the levels of o ever e expect the continuation of mar ed regional differences
bigger deals no that e uity mar ets have stabili ed i e ise ndia has seen strong activity on the bac of stronger economic fundamentals and because the pro- business political regime is starting to ma e an impact Develop ed m a rk ets see strong p ip elines a s u nicorns com e of a ge Amid the slowest year for US IPOs since 2009 , the US IPO mar et is expected to sho signs of improvement in T he stellar post- IPO performance of companies listed this year combined with record- high equity prices and low volatility have provided a positive mar et environment for companies planning their listings. hile some companies may ta e advantage of the narro pre election IPO window in 2016 provided by high equity valuations and low equity volatility, the focus now has switched to building the pipeline for next year e also anticipate that a bac log of bac ed companies ill come to mar et in ctivity in the uropean mar et is expected to rebound in 4 Q 16 and 2017 as the political situation in this region has become clearer he mix of a steady economic bac drop accommodative monetary policy, lower interest rate environments, still high equity valuation, currently low volatility levels and outperformance of recent IPOs should encourage both investors and IPO candidates. Even in an environment where alternative sources of cash are available through the private capital mar et a public listing remains an attractive option as a means to build the brand and gain ider exposure any unicorns have chosen to funding their growth through private capital, as they continue to mature e expect a number of unicorns to pursue a dual trac approach where some will follow the public listing route. Prosp ects look m u ch stronger f or 2 017 oo ing further ahead e expect that improving economic fundamentals, high valuations and lower volatility will support sentiment e foresee that as greater geopolitical clarity emerges activity ill pic up hile a return to the record levels of may be a stretch e expect that activity in could surpass 2015 .
Em erging m a rk ets a re retu rning to f orm merging mar ets are returning to form and e anticipate that sia aci c ill be the epicenter of activity ith several large deals planned ver the last ve years emerging mar ets have underperformed and in a number of instances are now loo ing relatively undervalued ro th differentials bet een emerging mar ets and developed mar ets hich are a driver of emerging mar et e uity outperformance are starting to re appear n a lo return orld emerging mar ets offer the opportunity to generate superior returns, which will support investor and IPO sentiment. ithin the emerging mar ets hina is expected to see a higher level of IPO activity as the C hina Securities R egulatory ommission loo s to clear the pipeline by approving
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Global IPO highlights
704
US$79.4b
(23% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
(39% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
deals globally
Commentary Uncertainty has hampered dealmaking throughout 2016. Although we have seen improving economic fundamentals, including reduced volatility and rising equity markets, the combination of a yet-to-be-determined US presidential race, the UK’s EU referendum and a raft of other geopolitical stresses have made 2016 exceptionally challenging for dealmakers and issuers. While 2016 will likely lag behind 2015 levels, overall the outlook for 2017 is positive.
Financial sponsor activity fell by 51% in 3Q16 compared with 2Q16
13% of global IPOs
in capital raised
Rapid growth vs. developed Rapid-growth markets represent 57% of global IPO volume in 3Q16 YTD. Developed
(January — September 2016)
1
Rapid growth
3Q16 YTD
Volume and value
Three sectors trending
In 3Q16 YTD, PE and VC account for 13% of global IPOs (92 deals) 25% by proceeds (US$19.7b)
Technology
120 deals (US$8.0b)
Industrials
Health care
(US$10.1b)
(US$5.1b)
118 deals
91 deals
Equity markets saw lower volatility in 3Q16 VIX
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The VIX® was around the 11% to 18% level in 3Q16, signaling lower volatility and higher investor confidence.
There were 23 withdrawn or postponed deals in 3Q16, which was lower than the 39 deals in 3Q15.
3Q16 IPO activity was affected by market volatility from 2Q16 and political uncertainty in the US and the UK.
Ninety-three percent of 3Q16 IPOs priced within or above expectations.2
Asia-Pacific tops the leaderboard US
17%
Top three deals in 3Q16
US exchanges ranked third by global funds raised.
China
Denmark
Japan
US$7.8b
US$2.0b
US$1.3b
Postal Savings Bank of China Co. Ltd.
Nets A/S
LINE Corp.
AsiaPacific
53%
Asia-Pacific led by global funds raised. Number of deals
Value of deals 29%
29%
Europe
EMEIA
EMEIA
58%
53%
Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific
13%
25%
European exchanges ranked second by global funds raised.
18%
Americas
Americas
Top six exchanges by funds raised NASDAQ OMX
HKEx
NYSE
SSE
Main and GEM
New York
Shanghai
US$17.6b (67 deals)
US$8.5b (23 deals)
US$7.5b (59 deals)
Home and away
US$7.3b (36 deals)
SZSE
NASDAQ
Shenzhen
US$4.6b (55 deals)
US$4.2b (73 deals)
Top six countries by deal volume4
Cross-border listings were 6% of global IPOs during 3Q16 YTD as compared with 7% during 3Q15 YTD.
Home
NASDAQ OMX and First North3
NASDAQ
Away
208 68
Greater China
US
62
Japan
56
48
India
Australia
34 South Korea
1. 3Q16 YTD (January — September 2016) IPO activity is based on priced IPOs as of 16 September and expected IPOs by the end of September. 2. Focus on open-price IPOs with deal value above US$50m. 3. NASDAQ OMX and First North include IPOs on the Copenhagen, Helsinki, Iceland and Stockholm markets. 4. Based on the listed company domicile nation.
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US IPO pipeline builds for 2017 s expected continued to be a uiet year for s ith a mere deals raising ust b largely mirroring last year s traditionally ea third uarter hen s raised b or the rst nine months of there ere IPOs raising US$ 13 .4 b in proceeds. T his represented a 4 4 % drop in the number of deals compared with the same period in 2015 and a 4 9 % decline in capital raised. D espite the very strong performance of this year s debutants hich are currently trading on average at above offer price most private companies and nancial investors are adopting a ait and see strategy, with sights set on doing a well- priced IPO in 2017 rather than ris the political and economic uncertainty that has weighed heavily in 2016 . • Although the US strongly outperformed EMEIA in terms of capital raised in 3 Q 16 , it came in at a distant second to sia aci c hich dominated global activity in n the rst nine months of activity sa one of the steepest declines of any countries during the period, suggesting this year will be the slowest for IPOs since the nancial crisis •
as the fourth busiest exchange accounting for of global s in hile ran ed ninth accounting for By capital raised ran ed third globally ith a share hile ran ed fourth ith a share •
exchanges sa three of this uarter s ten largest s globally, including oil and gas company V alvoline Inc., as well as t o cross border listings by apanese high tech rm orp and utch health care rm atheon reflecting the ongoing appeal of these mature exchanges ith their broad investor pool and influential analysts for technology and medical businesses. Economic and political factors weigh on IPO confidence D espite the ongoing strength of investor appetite for highperforming s rising stoc mar ets and lo levels of mar et volatility, IPO activity in 2016 has been muted. Political considerations including the unpredictability of the electoral outcome post Brexit concerns high levels of instability across the Middle East impacting Europe as well as the threat of a ederal eserval interest rate hi e are eighing heavily on con dence Corp ora te b eha vior is cha nging the IPO la ndsca p e C hanging corporate behavior is also a feature of the current landscape inancial sponsors are sitting on estimated record levels of dry po der ith orth merica s dry po der being US$ 3 07b as at end of August. In addition, the scale of their investing, particularly in technology or tech- enabled businesses, is creating a raft of unicorns hen freed from the immediate need to raise more cash these unicorns can ta e their time to build even larger and more mature businesses before coming to the public mar ets hen conditions are favorable and sta eholders are ready to exit e expect a number of unicorns to pursue their and may follo a dual trac process
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At the same time, many businesses continue to weigh merger, trade sale and ac uisition options alongside private nance and as a route to value generation ith so many choices on the table it is unsurprising that numbers are do n in the rst nine months of compared ith the same period in 2015 . T he decline in megadeals and a somewhat reduced participation by nancial sponsors ho accounted for of IPOs in 3 Q 16 compared with 6 1% in 3 Q 15 , is also a feature of this uarter reflecting ea appetite for s hen times are tough. H ea lth ca re dea ls dom ina te b u t technology ou tp erf orm s ealth care and technology continue to be the most active sectors in terms of numbers of deals, with each representing 26 % of IPOs in 3 Q 16 . In terms of proceeds, technology accounted for 3 1% of capital raised, while health care accounted for 19 % of capital raised in 3 Q 16 . oo ing ahead e expect to see the technology sector build its leadership position as more companies in the pipeline go public. T his is the only sector where maj ority of IPOs are priced within or above their ling range so far this year t has also had strong performances in trading debuts, with companies having average rst day returns over oreover a number of technology IPOs are currently trading at more than 5 0% above their offer price. IPO p rosp ects b righten tow a rd the end of the yea r b u t 2 016 w ill still end dow n n the coming ee s e anticipate that the combination of positive performance by stoc s high investor appetite and low volatility will encourage IPOs in the short window ahead of the presidential election in ovember o ever any such rally in activity is insuf cient to compensate for the slo start to the year, which saw only eight deals raise less than US$ 1b in 1Q 16 . lthough loo s set to be a slo er year for activity compared ith prospects for are already loo ing much more positive e continue to see increasing interest by companies considering an IPO or strategic transaction. T he pipeline is starting to re ll ith a combination of nancial sponsored bac ed unicorns and others that have pressed the pause button but are no loo ing ith con dence to ard reduced uncertainty and more supportive conditions next year
US IPO highlights
Volume and value
3Q16 YTD
(January — September 2016)5
79 deals
(44% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
Key trends
in capital raised (49% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
Commentary
• There may be some IPO activity while markets are strong and volatility is low, but the renewed threat of an interest rate hike and undetermined US election result will weigh through to the end of 2016. •
US$13.4b
will continue to feature in the IPO landscape as investors seek a combination of growth and value generation. The pipeline will start to build as companies consider going out at the end of 2016 or early 2017.
• Foreign businesses looking for the best place to maximize value will continue to consider US exchanges because of
“Our expectations for the IPO market this year were muted and nothing we saw in 3Q16 has changed that view. In a year clouded by unprecedented levels of uncertainty in terms of domestic and international politics, ongoing threats of an interest rate hike and periodically high levels of volatility, companies have by and large stayed away from public markets. With levels of private capital still at all-time highs and multitracking baked into corporate strategy, companies and financial sponsors are focused on getting set for 2017 when political and interest rate uncertainty are likely resolved by year-end and conditions will be supportive of doing a well-priced IPO.”
Jackie Kelley EY Americas IPO Leader
investors keen to generate returns.
Financial sponsors continue to drive US IPO market
Three sectors trending
PE and VC account for 53% of US IPOs (42 deals)
53% of US IPOs
55% by proceeds (US$7.3b)
Health care
Technology
(US$2.7b)
(US$2.8b)
31 deals
IPO pricing and performance6
US$338.7m
increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016 median post-IPO market cap
US$90m median deal size IPO activity
10 deals (US$1.9b)
Equity indices7
+13.3% +31.7%
15 deals
Financials
NYSE
NASDAQ
3Q16YTD
23 deals (US$8.5b)
55 deals (US$4.6b)
3Q15YTD
47 deals (US$14.6b)
93 deals (US$11.5b)
5. 3Q16 YTD (January — September 2016) IPO activity is based on priced IPOs as of 16 September and expected IPOs by the end of September. 6. Pricing and performance is based on 68 IPOs on NYSE and NASDAQ that have started trading by 18 June. 7. Year-to-date returns of equity indices as of 16 September. 8. 3Q16 YTD saw 12 cross-border deals raising US$3.4b in total. There was one IPO each from Argentina (US$323m), Bermuda (US$250m), Cayman Island (US$182m) and Israel (US$8m).
DJIA
+4.0%
S&P 500
+4.7%
Volatility index and postponed IPOs VIX®
-15.6%
Postponed and withdrawn IPOs • 46 deals, -18%
Cross-border activity in 3Q16 YTD from 12 deals8 China 4 deals (US$458m)
3 deals (US$848m) Japan 1 deal (US$1,322m) Europe
US
New registrations 3Q16 29 deals, US$2.2b 3Q15 45 deals, US$11.6b || 71
sia- acific is the engine o global hile other regions have seen a stop start pattern to activity in sia aci c has seen an increase in both deals and proceeds each uarter this year or the rst nine months of the year, it outpaced Europe and the Americas by a considerable distance with US$ 4 2.1b raised through 4 06 IPOs, representing a global share of 5 3 % by proceeds and a 5 8 % by deal volume. • Although G reater C hina continues to dominate, both within the region and compared ith all other mar ets outside the region there as signi cant activity in mar ets across sia aci c including apan ustralia and outh orea n addition some companies are coming to mar et in ingapore hailand and ndonesia ith investor con dence seemingly undented by events else here in the orld e expect a healthy flo of s to continue through the remainder of the year. •
n the rst nine months of six of the orld s ten most active exchanges by volume and ve of the orld s ten most active exchanges by proceeds ere in sia aci c •
n so far hen hen toc xchange is the most active by deal number ong ong ain ar et and by capital raised. • By sector nancials led the ay in the region ith of capital raised; while the industrials sector led by deal volume, with 21% of IPOs. Au stra lia b u ck s glob a l trend gainst a bac drop of declining activity in virtually every mar et ustralia stands out as one of the fe to see a year on year increase in the number of deals n the rst nine months of the year the ustralian ecurities xchange hosted 5 2 IPOs, compared with 4 9 during the same period in 2015 . D espite this increase in new listings, the amount of capital raised fell slightly to b do n from b in the rst three quarters of 2015 . n ugust the m listing of iva nergy on the as ran ed the sixth largest deal in sia aci c during the third uarter his as ustralia s second largest deal of behind industrials company eliance orld ide orporation imited which raised US$ 702m in April. By volume of IPOs, the most active sectors in the rst three uarters ere technology health care and materials. oo ing for ard the fourth uarter of the year typically sees the highest volume of s and not ithstanding the ris from increasing global capital mar et volatility there is a strong pipeline of companies ready to list. T his will include a number of cross- border IPOs as we continue to see steady interest from foreign small to mid si ed companies anting to list on the n a bid to maximi e opportunity and value a gro ing number of companies are follo ing a dual trac process and e expect this trend to continue for the remainder of 2016 and beyond. ean hile after a record number of nancial sponsor bac ed listings last year, the maj ority of private equity ( PE) and venture capital rms in ustralia are no in their investment phase in the cycle s a result e expect the volume of and bac ed s to start pic ing up again to ard the end of
9 apital raised on apanese exchanges in on N YSE via American D epositary R eceipts.
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as
b this excluded the
b dual listing of
activity
Activity in AS EAN m u ted fter a slo start to the year and a pic up in s in the second quarter, activity in ASEAN fell slightly in 3 Q 16 , resulting in a year on year decline for the rst nine months of the year of by number of deals and 27% by capital raised. T he economic slowdown, especially in C hina, continues to affect ASEAN business con dence and gro th hich is acting as a bra e on IPOs. he slo do n is exacerbated by ongoing commodity price fluctuations and political developments including on the hilippines toc xchange here there ere no s in ahead of the country s presidential election although e expect activity will recover now that the result has been decided. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious and are favoring debt offerings, especially in the face of potential interest rate rises. R EIT S and business trusts are also popular strategies due to their liquidity and steady yields. gainst this some hat mixed bac drop the entrepreneurial ecosystem continues to be robust and e expect to see more new listings of start- ups and other innovative businesses in sectors including in ech in the coming months urthermore the recent decline in stoc mar et volatility coupled ith robust V C activity, are positive indicators that the pipeline of IPOs in the ASEAN region is set to grow. Positive ou tlook f or J a p a n J apan continues to see healthy IPO activity with 19 deals raising US$ 1.5 b9 in 3 Q 16 , compared with US$ 1.1b in proceeds through 18 IPOs in 2Q 16 and US$ 1.1b in proceeds via 20 IPOs in 3 Q 15 . n addition the dual listing of orp the apanese rival to hats pp on the o yo toc xchange and e or toc xchange in uly raising b as the third largest worldwide of the quarter and the second largest of a technology company so far this year. T he deal drew strong investor interest the international tranche as reportedly times oversubscribed hile the company sa its stoc climb at the end of the rst day s trading or the rst nine months of apan sa s ith total proceeds of US$ 3 .8 b, up from US$ 2.6 b raised through 6 6 deals in the same period last year. T he consumer products and technology sectors have been the most active by deal volume, driven by the recovery in consumption nvestor con dence has been strengthened by lo er stoc mar et volatility the i ei toc verage has been stable through the second and third quarters. In the coming months IPO activity in J apan should continue to improve as the combined effect of monetary and scal easing hich included a stimulus pac age of b is expected to give a maj or boost to growth. T here were 9 7 IPOs on J apanese exchanges in a stand out year and e anticipate this year s total deal number to be slightly belo that level ith the current forecast predicting a total of around 9 0 new listings for the year.
orp on
and o yo toc
xchange because the ma ority of
proceeds ere raised
Volume and value
IPO highlights 3Q16 YTD
(January — September 2016)10
Key trends
IPO
406 deals
US$42.1b
(14% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
in capital raised (26% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
Commentary
• Greater China is the principal driver of
activity in the region, accounting for 50% of deals and 70% of proceeds in the Asia-Pacific region so far this year.
• Japan, South Korea and Australia are all seeing a healthy flow of companies coming to market.
• In the third quarter, five of the world's
ten largest IPOs were from Asia-Pacific.
“ Although new listings in Asia-Pacific are down year-on-year, in line with
the global trend, the region has been the world’s most active region through the first nine months of 2016, leading the way in both deal numbers and proceeds. Investor sentiment has been buoyed by the weaker-than-expected negative influence of Brexit and ample liquidity in emerging markets. With investor confidence seemingly un-dented by events elsewhere in the world, we expect a healthy flow of IPOs to continue through the remainder of the year.” Ringo Choi EY Asia-Pacific IPO Leader
Top six exchanges by funds raised HKEx
SSE
Main and GEM
Shanghai
(67 deals)
(59 deals)
US$17.6b US$7.5b
SZSE
TSE
Shenzhen
11
US$4.2b (73 deals)
Tokyo
12
US$3.8b
ASX
KRX
Australia
Main and KOSDAQ
US$3.0b
US$1.8b
Materials
Health care
Financials
(US$1.7b)
(US$1.0b)
(61 deals)
(52 deals)
(36 deals)
Six sectors trending
Industrials
Technology
Consumer products
(US$6.0b)
(US$2.2b)
(US$3.3b)
85 deals
77 deals
41 deals
39 deals
28 deals
28 deals
(US$1.0b) (US$15.9b)
IPO pricing and performance13
+19.7%
first-day average returns
+99.3%
increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016
US$125.3m US$31.7m
median post-IPO market cap median deal size
Equity indices 14 HANG SENG
+6.5%
SHANGHAI COMP
-15.2%
NIKKEI 225
-13.2%
FTSE STRAITS TIMES ASX 200
-1.9% +0.02%
Cross-border IPOs Greater China issuers had 13 cross-border deals with four deals on NASDAQ, three on KOSDAQ, and two on SGX and one deal each on NYSE, ASX, Deutsche Börse and Sydney Stock Exchange. Singapore issuers had three deals on the Hong Kong Main Market and GEM, which raised US$1.2b and one deal that raised US$1.4m on NASDAQ OMX First North in Stockholm. Australian Securities Exchange saw two deals from New Zealand and one deal each from Ireland and China that raised a combined US$82m. 10. 3Q16 YTD (January — September 2016) IPO activity is based on priced IPOs as of 16 September and expected IPOs by the end of September. 11. Shenzhen Stock Exchange includes IPO listings from the Main Board, SME Board and ChiNext. 12. Tokyo Stock Exchange includes IPO listings from the Main Board, MOTHERS and JASDAQ. 13. Pricing and performance is based on 373 IPOs of exchanges that have started trading by 16 September. Data as of 17 September. 14. Year-to-date returns of equity indices as of 16 September.
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G reater China leads the way in 2016 In line with the global trend, IPO activity in G reater C hina was do n in the rst nine months of the year here ere s raising US$ 29 .3 b, representing decreases of 24 % and 3 4 % respectively versus the same period in o ever reater hina has been the orld s stand out mar et in and en oyed an especially strong third uarter the region s most active of the year so far ith the number of s up on 2Q 16 , while capital raised rose by 3 4 2% over 2Q 16 . •
our of the orld s ten largest s in the rst nine months of have been on reater hina exchanges •
he industrials sector sa the greatest number of deals in the rst nine months of the year the nancials sector led in terms of proceeds. •
strong nish is expected for the year ith around companies currently in the ainland hina and ong ong pipeline altogether. Activity in Ma inla nd China a ccelera tes in the third q u a rter e listings gathered pace on ainland exchanges in as the share mar et made steady stable gains prompting the regulators to gradually uic en the pace of s here ere deals raising b in a mar ed increase of and 177% respectively on 2Q 16 . T his was the most active quarter of 2016 so far, pushing the year- to- date total of deals to 13 2 deals, with proceeds of US$ 11.7b. he fth largest deal globally of as Ban of iangsu o td hich raised b on the hanghai toc xchange in ugust as also the biggest on a ainland hina exchange in so far nvestor appetite remains strong all ne listings in on ainland exchanges rose by the maximum permitted on rst day of trading on dence has pic ed up as the economy has gathered pace R eal G D P growth in 2Q 16 reached 6 .7% year- on- year, surpassing mar et expectations led by a buoyant property mar et and higher factory output anufacturing activity expanded for the rst time in months in uly as ne orders increased indicating a pic up in domestic demand ean hile the hinese overnment has ta en a number of steps to support business investments. H ong Kong sta ges a recovery fter a stagnant rst half of the year activity on the ong ong ain ar et recovered in the third uarter here ere IPOs raising US$ 11.8 b in 3 Q 16 , with increases of 9 0% and 6 3 6 % respectively on his pic up in activity as due in part to a steady rise in the ang eng ndex hich gained more than in the two- month period spanning J uly and August. he improvement in mar et sentiment as reflected in pricing. T he proportion of IPOs issued in the lower pricing range dropped signi cantly to in compared ith in and in ompanies ere een to sei e the opportunity of attractive valuations and avoid the possible ris of a mar et slide later in the year hich is potentially due to delayed fallout from the Brexit vote in the and uncertainty over the US presidential election.
10 |
arge deals dominated on the x in t the time of riting ostal avings Ban of hina o td as expected to list in the last ee of eptember loo ing to raise around b in hat ould be the orld s largest since the float of libaba roup olding td in eptember hich raised b his as ust one of a number of large listings of nancial services companies in 3 Q 16 . T here were three IPOs from this sector raising a combined US$ 9 .9 b in funds, representing 8 4 % of total proceeds this quarter but only 16 % by deal volume. hinese nancial companies verbright ecurities o td and rient ecurities o td ran ed fourth and sixth in the list of the orld s ten largest s in the uarter raising b and b on the ong ong ain ar et respectively Positive ou tlook f or the rem inder of the yea r e expect the recovery of activity on the ong ong toc xchange to continue through the fourth uarter of traditionally the busiest period of the year when businesses ready to go public are een to complete their listings ahead of the hinese holiday season ccording to the x there are more than 100 companies in the pipeline waiting to go public and investor sentiment has been strengthened by recent stoc mar et gains positive mar et reaction to the ostal avings Ban ould act as a spur to ne listings In addition, some IPO candidates may choose to bring forward their listing in anticipation of the possible impact of changes resulting from the release of the j oint consultation paper by the ecurities and utures ommission and the x on proposed enhancements to the exchange s decision ma ing and governance structure for listing regulation. he upcoming hen hen ong ong onnect program expected to launch around the middle of ecember ill be a further boost to mar et sentiment and is expected to encourage greater participation by foreign institutional investors. he program is a elcome sign sho ing that policyma ers are een to press on ith nancial reform as concerns over mar et volatility and capital outflo s continue to fade he program ill also have a positive impact on ainland hina hich is set to maintain its position as the orld s most active mar et for s ith valuations in the public mar et exceeding those for the private mar et there are more than 8 00 businesses in the C hina Securities R egulatory C ommission pre list and e expect ill gradually pic up the pace of s as it see s to maintain a balance bet een the pace of ne listings and the impact of mar et volatility ean hile C SR C has introduced measures designed to improve the functioning of hina s stoc mar ets including stricter nancial examination of companies in the pipeline and improvements to the existing delisting system hich bode ell for and beyond.
Greater China IPO highlights
Volume and value Hong Kong Main Market
Hong Kong Main Market
Shanghai
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Shenzhen
42 deals (14% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
3Q16 YTD
(January — September 2016)
14
US$17.3b (13% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
59 deals (25% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
US$7.5b (55% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
73 deals15 (35% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
Key trends
US$4.2b15 (41% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
Commentary • Pace of new listings in Mainland China accelerates as volatility subsides. • Strong pipeline of companies ready to list should lead to uptick in IPO activity in the fourth quarter.
“The Greater China IPO market recovered in 3Q16, with volume and proceeds up on both Mainland China exchanges and the HKEx, following a lull in the second quarter. The weaker-than-expected negative influence of Brexit and diminishing possibility of another rise in US interest rates have stabilized the capital markets. With the anticipated launch of the Shenzhen Hong Kong Stock Connect in mid-December, Greater China will remain the world’s most active market for IPOs in 2016.”
• Stock market reforms in both Mainland China and Hong Kong will stimulate flow of IPOs.
Terence Ho EY Greater China IPO Leader
Six sectors trending
Industrials
Technology
(US$4.5b)
(US$1.4b)
60 deals
33 deals
Materials
Financials
Consumer products
(US$0.8b)
(US$15.5b)
(US$2.5b)
21 deals
15 deals
14 deals
Consumer staples
11 deals (US$0.8b)
IPO pricing and performance17 Hong Kong Main Market
+14.5% +7.3%
average returns increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016
Shanghai and Shenzhen
+44.0% +202.7%
Equity indices18 HANG SENG
average returns increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016
US$164.6m
median post-IPO market cap
US$206.5m
median post-IPO market cap
US$38.3m
median deal size
US$51.6m
median deal size
+6.5%
SHANGHAI COMP
-15.2%
SHENZHEN COMP
-14.2%
HANG SENG VOLATILITY
+4.9%
Mainland China’s IPO pipeline
More than 800
companies are in the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) pipeline.
More than half (54%) of the companies are planning to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
Around 35% are expected to be PE- or VC-backed.
CSRC IPO pipeline 15. 3Q16 YTD (January — September 2016) IPO activity is based on priced IPOs as of 16 September and expected IPOs by the end of September. 16. Shenzhen Stock Exchange includes IPO listings from the Main Board, SME Board and ChiNext. 17. Pricing and performance is based on 39 IPOs on Hong Kong Main Market and 115 IPOs on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges that have started trading by 16 September. Data as of 17 September. 18. Year-to-date returns of equity indices as of 14 September for Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite indices and 15 September for Hang Seng index.
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EMEIA IPO activity rebounding as conditions are improving been less than feared and some forecasters have reversed their predictions for a recession.
he fallout from the s decision to leave the uropean nion reverberated around nancial mar ets during eighing heavily on IPO activity across much of the EMEIA region. EMEIA IPO proceeds slumped by 6 9 % to US$ 4 .4 b in 3 Q 16 from US$ 14 .0b the previous quarter. D eal volumes were down by 5 9 % , dropping from 9 7 deals in 2Q 16 to 4 0 deals in 3 Q 16 . T he decline was most mar ed in urope here both proceeds and deal volume fell by bet een the second and third uarters ndeed mainland urope s performance as even slightly orse than the itself here the declines quarter- on- quarter were 6 5 % by proceeds and 5 9 % by volume. •
or the rst nine months of exchanges raised US$ 23 .3 b from 207 IPOs, a decline of 4 6 % by proceeds and 27% by volume of deals compared with the same period in 2015 . •
and Borsa taliana ere the only t o exchanges to feature in the global top by capital raised in or the nine month period three exchanges featured in the global top ten ran ed fourth by capital raised ith ondon ain ar et and together ran ed seventh and uronext and lternext together ran ed ninth
o ever signi cant uncertainty remains and the impact of Brexit on investment is li ely to ta e longer to unfold than the impact on consumer spending. India m a inta ins m om entu m T his year has been one of the most promising for IPOs in India and the trend continues to loo favorable in the near to medium term ear to date ndia s Bombay and ational stoc exchanges have been the most active in the EMEIA region by volume with 5 6 s raising b Bombay ain ar et and Board is the seventh most active exchange globally by deal volume nd the re emergence of larger listings those ith an average si e touching the m mar could help ndia reach the expected target of US$ 5 b in proceeds by the end of 2016 .
• India was very active by deal volume this quarter, accounting for three of the top ten EMEIA IPOs, with 18 IPOs raising US$ 6 3 0m.
he surge in activity is being driven by higher investor con dence in the Indian economy and continuing regulatory reforms. G iven higher valuations, the maj ority of IPOs in 2016 have been aimed at providing exits for investors and a dilution of other sta eholders Some IPOs have also been deferred because of lower- than- hopedfor valuations hich can be expected to return to the mar et in the future.
Dea l siz e drop s here ere t o deals of signi cant si e in the region in the US$ 2.0b IPO of payment processor N ets A/ S on N ASD AQ openhagen at the end of eptember and the m privati ation of state o ned enterprise taly s air traf c control operator. EN AV completed its IPO in mid- J uly, after it had been delayed by the Brexit vote in une
Bright sp ots in a n u ncerta in ou tlook uropean activity is unli ely to reach levels by the end of this year follo ing the s vote to leave the and geopolitical tensions across the region o ever an uptic in activity to ard the end of the year is expected reater clarity over the s progress on negotiations ith the ill be ey to activity pic ing up again after the traditionally quiet summer period, but there are a number of supportive factors suggesting a more optimistic outloo in urope including
T he N ets A/ S and EN AV transactions were the only EMEIA IPOs large enough to ma e the uarter s top ten deals in star contrast to hen ve of the largest ten deals ere conducted on the regions exchanges •
hort and long term interest rates are at extremely lo levels and are li ely to remain so as monetary policy is expected to stay accommodative post Brexit •
ith real interest rates being negative investors are being pushed into equities to generate higher returns, which has helped uropean stoc indices push higher follo ing the immediate post Brexit decline s a result the improving trend of recent years in both trailing and forward P/ E ratios continues and these improved valuations support IPO sentiment. •
olatility in many e uity mar ets has fallen to its lo est level since September 2015 .
ndia s Bombay ain ar et and Board ere the most active exchanges by deal number ithin in ith a combined total of s ahead of the ondon ain ar et and ith seven By proceeds and its unior mar et led the ay with US$ 2.0b, followed by Borsa Italiana and its AIM US$ 9 29 m. verall average deal si e on main mar ets decreased from US$ 107.5 m in 2Q 16 to US$ 8 7.5 m in 3 Q 16 . The p ost- Brex it lu ll n the immediate a e of the s decision to leave the e uity mar ets fell and forecasts for economic gro th ere cut recession was predicted by a number of commentators and the nternational onetary und described Brexit as thro ing a spanner in the or s of global gro th causing idespread economic and nancial uncertainty even though the only modestly downgraded their global growth forecasts for this year and next by uity mar ets ho ever have uic ly recovered from their immediate post Brexit declines and volatility has fallen he bac drop for s has therefore become more supportive ithin the the negative impact of the vote on the economy has so far
12 |
activity in ndia is expected to see a strong end to the year ith a record number of exits expected despite the postponement of the odafone mega expected to raise b until activity in India will be driven by improving economic fundamentals and stellar performance of stoc s in the secondary mar ets toc mar ets in the iddle ast and orth frica have remained lac luster and declining oil prices and global economic volatility have eighed on activity in the region hile uncertainties ith oil prices and regional geopolitics remain e ould expect to see continued volatility in the regions e uity mar ets
EMEIA IPO highlights
207 IPOs with US$23.3b proceeds
3Q16 YTD
(January — September 2016)
19
Main markets:
94 IPOs
Proceeds US$21.4b (48% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
Junior markets:
113 deals
Proceeds US$1.9b (23% increase on 3Q15 YTD)
(39% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
(12% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
Commentary
Key trends • EMEIA IPOs are still outperforming the main market equity indices, which encourages investor sentiment. • The combination of a steady economic backdrop, accommodative monetary policy, high equity valuations and low volatility is supportive for higher levels of IPO activity in the medium-term. Investor confidence
• India IPO activity is set to remain strong, driven by high investor confidence and regulatory reforms.
“Political uncertainty concerning Brexit and the US elections, rather than the events themselves, is causing private companies to delay their decisions on when to list. In addition, IPOs are executed locally, but investors are approached globally, so uncertainty spreads beyond the region where the IPO originates. However, as the political situation becomes clearer, the mix of a steady economic backdrop, accommodative monetary policy, low interest rate environments, still high equity valuations and current low volatility levels are expected to lead to a rebound in IPO activity for the remainder of the year and 2017.”
Dr. Martin Steinbach EY EMEIA IPO Leader
Top five exchanges by funds raised NASDAQ OMX
LSE
Euronext
BSE
BME
NASDAQ OMX and First North
Main Market and AIM
Euronext and Alternext
Bombay and SME
Bolsa de Madrid and MaB
(40 deals)
(14 deals)
US$4.2b
US$7.3b (36 deals)
US$3.3b
Financial sponsor activity fell by 39% in 3Q16YTD compared with 3Q15YTD
16%
(48 deals)
US$1.5b (5 deals)
Three sectors trending
PE/VC accounted for 16% of EMEIA IPOs (33 deals)
of EMEIA IPOs
44% by proceeds (US$10.2b)
Health care
Industrials
Technology
(US$1.4b)
(US$3.7b)
(US$3.1b)
32 deals
IPO pricing and performance Main markets20
29 deals
28 deals
Equity indices21
Junior markets20
+10.9%
first-day average return
increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016
+27.0%
increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016
US$298.0m
median post-IPO market cap
US$16.1m
median post-IPO market cap
US$211.3m
average deal size
US$17.3m
average deal size
average +6.7% first-day return
+14.4%
US$1.8b
FTSE 100
+7.5%
BSE SENS
+9.5%
DAX
-4.3%
JSE All share
+2.2%
CAC 40
-6.6%
MICEX
+12.5%
VDAX®
-12.4%
Volatility indices VSTOXX®
-3.9%
Postponed and withdrawn IPOs
• 26 deals -24%
Cross-border IPOs • 16 (8%) EMEIA issuers conducted cross-border listings, consisting of: • 11 IPOs to exchanges within the EMEIA region • Five IPOs to exchanges outside the EMEIA region • Four Asian companies and one US company conducted crossborder listings on EMEIA exchanges
19. 3Q16 YTD (January — September 2016) IPO activity is based on priced IPOs as of 16 September and expected IPOs by the end of September. 20. Pricing and performance is based on 91 IPOs on main markets and 110 IPOs on junior markets that have started trading by 16 September. Data as of 17 September. 21. Year-to-date returns of equity indices as of 16 September.
| |13 2
UK IPO market looks set to bounce back he unexpected referendum result has compounded the slo rst half of the year in the hich sa many businesses put their listing plans on hold or the rst nine months of there ere a total of s on the ondon ain ar et and AIM, raising a total of US$ 4 .2b, which were decreases of 4 7% in proceeds and 11% in volume compared with the same period in o ever the summer months are a traditionally uiet period for the mar et in the a comparison of to 3 Q 15 reveals little change.
e ly listed stoc s in have outperformed veteran assets which are currently trading an average of 22.6 % above list price, with none trading below their list price. •
•
• T here were seven IPOs in 3 Q 16 , the same number as in 3 Q 15 , but the US$ 3 77m capital raised was up 18 % .
here ere no
or
bac ed listings during
Focu s ha s b een on the sm a ll a nd dom estic this q u a rter ix of the seven listings that too place this uarter ere on the unior mar et as larger businesses decided to postpone their listings during this turbulent period eflecting the international implications of the Brexit vote of the six s that were priced and started trading in 3 Q 16 , it is unusual that only one was a foreign business, SEC SpA, which is an Italian media and entertainment business that raised US$ 4 .4 m. T he only listing on the ondon ain ar et as the operator of bo ling centers olly ood Bo l roup plc hich as completed in the second half of September. D ue to the limited range of activity in 3 Q 16 , no sector could be said to have dominated but t o deals on mar et ere notable lobal td a nancial and investment service provider raised m at a mar et capitali ation of m utins roup raised m at a mar et capitali ation of m utins roup speciali es in the design, manufacture and supply of acoustic and thermal insulation solutions primarily in the automotive sector, but is having a disruptive influence on other sectors as it broadens its focus to include white goods, power generation, marine, apparel, rail, commercial vehicles and industrial sectors. Both companies have traded ell in the secondary mar et currently up and 3 6 .6 % respectively. Pricing a nd interest a re p ick ing u p nitially at the start of e uity indices fell signi cantly o ever at the time of riting as the uarter comes to an end mar ets are close to an month high hich should lead to strong opportunities in 4 Q 16 . Although many of the businesses that have put their listing plans on hold are still set to revise their IPO timetables, the recovery in mar et pricing has made the option attractive once again In part, this has been driven by strong US and Asian interest in assets made cheaper by the ea pound and is particularly the case for those businesses ith strong based revenues gainst this bac drop e are a are of a number of large s in the pipeline which, if successful, could drive another period of strong IPO activity.
14 |
s al ays it ill be the speci c characteristics and e uity story of the individual companies that drive investor interest. C ompanies in the retail, technology, and media and entertainment sectors are li ely to be the most attractive mirroring previous quarters. tronger levels of participation by and bac ed businesses are li ely to be another feature of activity bac ed businesses typically have the scale and expertise to launch their listings uic ly in an effort to ta e advantage of a positive change in investor con dence in the e uity mar ets f one of the scheduled larger IPOs launches successfully early in the quarter, this is li ely to boost con dence and ill li ely inspire a raft of other sponsor bac ed s to ta e place Prosp ects f or 2 017 a re im p roving t is possible that as e loo ahead to debate over the future of the s trading relationships and the triggering of Article 5 0 will drive volatility, which will impact IPO windows. o ever ith a number of very large s rumored it is li ely that could see a resurgence of the mar et as rms loo to ta e advantage of global investor interest
UK IPO highlights
Volume and value
3Q16 YTD
(January — September 2016) 21
Key trends
London Main Market 12 deals (43% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
London Main Market US$3.0b (58% decrease on 3Q15 YTD)
London AIM 28 deals (17% increase on 3Q15 YTD)
London AIM US$1.2b (71% increase on 3Q15 YTD)
• The resolution of political uncertainty due to the EU referendum will see IPO activity pick up on the back of reduced volatility, rising indices and strong aftermarket performance of new IPOs. • US and Asian investors’ interest will help drive pricing, making IPOs more attractive to business leaders and their backers.
• While 2017 looks set for an IPO resurgence, longer term it is possible that the triggering of Article 50 and the renegotiation of Britain’s trading relationships will drive volatility, which will impact IPO windows.
Financial sponsors continue to drive UK IPO market
Commentary “The unexpected EU referendum result quickly sent the markets and the pound into decline, resulting in many firms postponing their IPO plans. However, following the markets’ strong recovery and the added interest of US and Asian investors looking to take advantage of the weak pound, we now expect a number of firms to re-engage their IPO plans. With a number of very large IPOs rumored, we could see a resurgence of the UK IPO market in 2017, as firms look to take advantage of global investor interest in the UK market.” Scott McCubbin EY UK and Ireland IPO Leader
Three sectors trending
PE and VC accounted for 20% of UK IPOs (8 deals)
20%
51% of proceeds (US$2.1b)
of UK IPOs
Technology
Financials
(US$0.4b)
(US$1.3b)
6 deals
Retail
5 deals
5 deals
(US$0.4b)
IPO pricing and performance London Main Market23
+4.2% +22.6%
Alternative Investment Market23
+11.2% +23.5%
first-day average return increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016
US$416.9m
median post-IPO market cap
US$212.0m
median deal size
US$62.8m US$17.7m
Cross-border activity in 3Q16 YTD25 Italy had two deals; Guernsey, US and Malaysia had one deal each, raising US$122.6m altogether on AIM. Israel and Philippines had one deal each, raising US$8.1m altogether on the London Main Market.
Equity indices24
first-day average return
FTSE 100
+7.5%
FTSE 350
+6.6%
FTSE AIM ALL SHARE
+9.4%
increase in offer price vs. 16 September 2016
median post-IPO market cap median deal size
Top three IPOs in 3Q16 by capital raised Hollywood Bowl Group plc
APQ Global Ltd.
Autins Group
raised
raised
raised
US$240m (UK, Media and entertainment)
US$79m
(Guernsey, Financials)
US$34m
(UK, Materials)
22. 3Q16 YTD (January — September 2016) IPO activity is based on priced IPOs as of 16 September and expected IPOs by the end of September. 23. Pricing and performance is based on 12 IPOs on London Main Market and 28 IPOs on AIM that have started trading by 16 September. Data as of 17 September. 24. Year-to-date returns of equity indices as of 16 September 2016. 25. There were seven cross-border IPOs on London Main and AIM in 3Q16 YTD.
| 15
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Find ou t m ore a b ou t f u tu re IPO p rosp ects or more information on global performance by uarter and year and ho mar et loo s set to develop in 2016 and 2017, visit the EY G lobal IPO website: ey. com / ip o N ote: T hroughout this report, 2016 J anuary to September ( 3 Q 16 YT D ) IPO activity is based on priced s as of eptember and expected s by end of September. Source of data: D ealogic and EY.