01.08.2018

CLIPPING INTERNACIONAL NEGINT Brasília, 01 de agosto de 2018

Índice I. OMC _______________________________________________ 2 Mexico seeks urgent WTO reform, readying for US car tariffs _____________ 2 II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS _________________ 2 Japan won't seek free trade pact with US _____________________________ 2 Brussels' plan for vague Brexit document could spark CHAOS in future UK-EU trade talks _____________________________________________________ 4 III. OUTROS ____________________________________________ 5 ¿Está impulsando Donald Trump la integración de América Latina sin proponérselo? __________________________________________________ 5 Brazil set to hold rates at all-time low despite inflation spike ______________ 9 Brazil card processor Cielo's shares fall 7 pct after profit miss ____________ 10

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I. OMC Mexico seeks urgent WTO reform, readying for US car tariffs Reuters (Reino Unido) Mexico is preparing all options to respond to potential U.S. tariffs on cars, Deputy Economy Minister Juan Carlos Baker told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday, after meeting with other U.S. allies to discuss the trade crisis. Baker said he was encouraged by what he called “incipient” talks on reforming the World Trade Organization, and called for the process to begin as soon as possible, with a ministerial meeting in Davos in January seen as a good time to take stock of progress.

II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS Japan won't seek free trade pact with US News (Austrália) Talks next week between Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are not a prelude to a two-way free trade agreement, Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasutoshi Nishimura says. Nishimura also told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday that Japan did not intend to set numerical targets on either exports or imports. The August 9 talks in Washington come as US President Donald Trump's administration explores raising tariffs on foreign auto imports, including those from Japan, a step that officials say would do serious damage to the two economies and world trade.

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The United States is a major market for Japan's automakers, which produced 3.8 million vehicles at their US plants in 2017, roughly one-third of the 12 million total units produced in the country each year. An additional 1.7 million vehicles were exported from Japan last year. Trump wants a two-way trade pact as a way to reduce America's trade deficit with Japan but Tokyo is wary of FTA talks because they would increase pressure to open sensitive markets such as agriculture. "Japan does not desire an FTA and these talks are not at all preliminary discussions on an FTA," Nishimura said. Nishimura reiterated that Japan would keep trying to persuade Washington to return to a multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership pact abandoned by Trump soon after he took office last year. However, he acknowledged that Washington's preference was for bilateral deals. "We will be looking for the best path for both the United States and Japan," Nishimura said. He repeated that Japan was expected to increase imports of liquefied natural gas from America and buy US military gear needed for its defence. Japanese firms want to invest in the robust US market and Japan wants to support that, he said. However, Nishimura ruled out setting a numerical limit on Japanese auto exports to the United States, a tactic taken during trade wars in the 1980s and early 1990s, before the 1995 launch of the World Trade Organization, which generally bans such steps. "Whether it's exports or imports, we will not set numerical targets," Nishimura said. "The fundamental thing is to maintain free and fair trade." Nishimura declined to say what steps Japan would take if Washington raised its tariffs on auto imports. "Raising tariffs on autos would have a big impact on the world economy and would be a big minus for the American economy, so we want to talk firmly so that does no happen," he said.

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Brussels' plan for vague Brexit document could spark CHAOS in future UK-EU trade talks Express (Reino Unido) Brussels is hoping the future declaration for the post-Brexit trade and security pact, which will be signed off alongside the withdrawal agreement, will only be around “four or five pages” in length. This will frustrate British negotiators who are hoping to closer replicate the detail set out in Theresa May’s 100-page White Paper. However, the vague document could allow the UK to push for extra access because of the light wording. An EU source said: “Creating a big fudge via a political declaration will create the impression that there is some kind of link into the single market when in reality there is not. New Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has put an emphasis on the UK’s commitment to the pay £39bn to the EU in the withdrawal agreement is condition on the EU going ahead with the trade deal expected to be agreed in the declaration at the same time. The agreement on the future relationship will not be legally binding but is designed to present a number of economic reassurances by outlining plans for a future trade and security relationship, completing the package both MPs and MEPs will vote on next year. Another senior EU source revealed the document could be only “four or five pages” but could stretch to “25 to 35 pages” because of the lack of time left before the supposed October deadline for the withdrawal agreement and future declaration. “It can either be four, five pages, or it could be a bit more elaborate but I think we are in the league of five to 25 to 35 pages,” they told the Guardian. “We don't have the time to thrash out the details. The more details you want the more advanced you should be in negotiations.” The lack of detail also offers a level of assurance to Brussels in the event Mrs May is replaced in Downing Street and a hard Brexiteer assumed the role of prime minister.

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The source added: “The reality is that, imagine after March next year the UK gets rid of May, the hard Brexiteers take over and Boris says: ‘Too bad. I am not interested in all this. I want a basic free trade agreement.’ We have to adjust. “In the unlikely event of Jeremy Corbyn having a heart attack and Chuka Umunna taking over, he says the objective is to be in the European Economic Area. Why would we refuse?" Brussels' negotiator Michel Barnier may have already made the path toward a future agreement on trade and security easier by softening on his stance on Mrs May's financial services offer. Mr Barnier has previously rejected Mrs May’s latest proposal for the City of London because he believed the UK was requesting an independent arbiter to decide whether the UK’s regulations were close enough to Brussels’ to maintain market access. He was concerned such an agreement would break one of the EU’s red lines by removing the bloc’s “decision making autonomy”. However, British negotiators have told him that he has misinterpreted two parts of what was asked for as part of the White Paper, which was signed off by the Cabinet before its publication in July.

III. OUTROS ¿Está impulsando Donald Trump la integración de América Latina sin proponérselo? BBC (Reino Unido) Donald Trump fue acusado varias veces de atribuirse logros ajenos, pero hay algo a lo que el presidente de Estados Unidos parece haber contribuido aún sin proponérselo: un nuevo impulso de integración entre los países de América Latina.

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El fenómeno se reflejó la semana pasada, cuando los dos mayores bloques comerciales de la región, la Alianza del Pacífico (Chile, Colombia, México y Perú) y el Mercosur (Argentina, Brasil, Paraguay y Uruguay), pactaron un"plan de acción"hacia una convergencia entre ambos. El compromiso incluye medidas para eliminar barreras no arancelarias y explorar un acuerdo comercial entre las dos estructuras, que reúnen 80% de la población de Latinoamérica y 86% del PIB. "Enviamos al mundo una clara señal de que juntos impulsamos la integración regional y el libre comercio", dijo el presidente mexicano, Enrique Peña Nieto, anfitrión en la cumbre de Puerto Vallarta. Su par brasileño, Michel Temer, indicó al viajar al encuentro que "en un mundo de tendencias proteccionistas y aislacionistas, es emblemático que el Mercosur y la Alianza del Pacífico se reúnan para empuñar la bandera del libre comercio". Esto sonó como una respuesta a Trump, quien tiene en jaque el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN o NAFTA) y repiqueteó los tambores de una guerra comercial global al elevar aranceles de EE.UU. Sobre la integración económica latinoamericana siempre se habló mucho más de lo que se hizo, pero esta vez el escenario internacional es visto como propicio para alcanzar lo que antes resultó esquivo. "En las tensiones comerciales, es mejor que América Latina tenga al menos un mercado regional que le permita acceder a todos y construir escalas", dice Mario Cimoli, secretario ejecutivo adjunto de la Comisión Económica para América Latina (CEPAL). "Sí, ayudan en algún modo las tensiones comerciales", agrega Cimoli en diálogo con BBC Mundo, desde la sede del organismo en Santiago de Chile. El factor Trump Al acercamiento entre la Alianza del Pacífico y el Mercosur se suman otras iniciativas bilaterales en la región.

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Por ejemplo, México busca profundizar los acuerdos de complementación económica que tiene con Argentina y Brasil, que a su vez quiere cerrar este año un acuerdo de libre comercio con Chile. Poco tiempo atrás habría sido difícil imaginar a los presidentes de las dos mayores economías latinoamericanas, Brasil y México, reunidos para promover una integración económica como pasó en Puerto Vallarta. El camino se allanó, en parte, por el giro político de Sudamérica en los últimos años, con gobiernos más proclives al libre comercio en países como Brasil o Argentina, justo en el sentido contrario a EE.UU. Y también fue clave que, tras la llegada de Trump a la Casa Blanca, México se viera forzado a imaginar un futuro inmediato sin su preciado tratado NAFTA de libre comercio con EE.UU. y Canadá. Luis de la Calle, un economista que en el pasado lideró negociaciones comerciales del gobierno de México, sostiene que Trump se ha vuelto un factor para que los países de América Latina busquen "integrarse aún más". México podría estar mirando hacia el sur no solo para buscar nuevos mercados, sino también para ganar peso en la renegociación del NAFTA con Trump. "El hecho de que México se acerque a Argentina o Brasil preocupa en Iowa y en Kansas, no porque México vaya a exportar más a Brasil y Argentina, sino porque tendría opciones para hacerse de maíz, trigo, carne, etcétera", dice de la Calle a BBC Mundo. "Entonces la posición de negociación de México (en el NAFTA) se fortalece", concluye. "Potencial gigantesco" México tendrá un cambio de gobierno en diciembre, pero hasta ahora todo indica que su presidente electo, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, mantendrá cierta continuidad en política comercial. De hecho, López Obrador envió a la cumbre de la Alianza del Pacífico y el Mercosur a su futura secretaria de Economía, Graciela Márquez Colín, quien resaltó su convicción "por la integración y el libre comercio".

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Brasil, a su vez, tendrá en octubre una elecciones presidenciales de resultado incierto y que quizá marquen un nuevo giro del gigante sudamericano en política comercial. Sin embargo, muchos en la región hoy ven la integración con los vecinos desde un prisma más pragmático que ideológico. América Latina tiene junto a África el menor índice de comercio intrarregional del mundo: 16% del valor de sus exportaciones es destinado al propio vecindario, mucho menos que el 50% de Asia oriental o el 64% de la Unión Europea, según un estudio de la CEPAL. "En una coyuntura tan turbulenta como la actual, profundizar la integración regional no es una opción sino un imperativo", indicó el organismo el mes pasado. Otro informe reciente del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) planteó la posibilidad de un tratado de libre comercio de América Latina y el Caribe, que aumentaría 3,5% promedio o unos US$11.300 millones los flujos de intercambio intrarregional. "A diferencia de lo que ocurrió con las iniciativas anteriores, la región ahora tiene un contexto político favorable y un punto de partida ventajoso: casi el 90% del comercio intrarregional ya se encuentra libre de aranceles", señaló el informe del BID. Pero otros expertos advierten que las economías de América Latina son menos complementarias entre sí que con países de Europa o Asia, con los cuales también hay negociaciones en curso. "Con la excepción de México, todos los demás países (latinoamericanos) aún tienen en su perfil de comercio exterior presencia muy fuerte de materias primas agrícolas y minerales", señala Marcos Troyjo, un economista brasileño que dirige el BRICLab de la Universidad de Columbia en Nueva York. "Tengo la impresión de que los temas comerciales intra-América Latina tienen un techo bajo", dice Troyjo a BBC Mundo. A su juicio, los países de la región deben coordinarse también para construir padrones comunes en áreas como la legislación laboral o ambiental y para atraer inversión extranjera en proyectos de infraestructura, como la vía férrea Atlántico-Pacífico. En estos campos, sostiene Troyjo, "el potencial es gigantesco".

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Brazil set to hold rates at all-time low despite inflation spike Reuters (Reino Unido) Brazil’s central bank is likely to hold interest rates at an all-time low on Wednesday even after inflation jumped back within its target range, due to an underwhelming economic recovery keeping a lid on price pressures in the medium term. The bank’s monetary policy committee, known as Copom, is widely expected to keep its benchmark Selic interest rate at 6.50 percent at the conclusion of a two-day meeting, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The decision is expected to be announced at 6:00 p.m. (2100 GMT). Product shortages driven by a nationwide trucker strike in the final weeks of May, along with higher power rates, lifted the 12-month inflation rate to 4.53 percent in mid-July from 2.70 percent in mid-May. The central bank is targeting year-end inflation of 4.50 percent for 2018 and 4.25 percent for 2019, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points in either direction. Yet economists say the short-term inflation bump is likely to fade soon due to doubledigit unemployment rates and widespread idle capacity among companies. In fact, the protests blocking major roadways and nearly paralyzing key sectors of the economy for two weeks likely weighed on economic activity enough to offset the upward pressure on prices. A recent Reuters survey showed the strike had curbed the outlook for economic growth this year by nearly one percentage point, but only temporarily drove up prices. Observers will parse the bank’s policy statement for hints at when interest rates will rise again. But with unpredictable October presidential elections approaching, policymakers may be hesitant to provide any concrete timeline for rate hikes. Most economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to wait until at least 2019 before raising rates.

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Brazil card processor Cielo's shares fall 7 pct after profit miss Reuters (Reino Unido) Shares in Brazilian card processor Cielo SA slid 7.2 percent in mid-afternoon trading in Sao Paulo after the company missed profit estimates amid fierce competition. Shares were at 14.77 reais after Ceilo reported recurring net income in the second quarter that was 13 percent below the consensus of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The company said its largest clients saw the biggest drop in debit card transactions.

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