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CLIPPING INTERNACIONAL NEGINT Brasília, 21 de janeiro de 2019
Índice I. OMC _______________________________________________ 2 Gears of WTO about to come to a halt amid U.S. refusal to appoint new judges, Canada warns __________________________________________________ 2 II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS _________________ 3 Trans-Pacific trade pact members work to entice more economies as bulwark against protectionism ____________________________________________ 3 Trade deal could very well happen with China, says Donald Trump _________ 5 III. OUTROS ____________________________________________ 6 Brazil Is Back in the Game, New Leader Will Tell Davos Investors __________ 6 ¿Murió el Mercosur y nace una zona de libre comercio? __________________ 9
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I. OMC Gears of WTO about to come to a halt amid U.S. refusal to appoint new judges, Canada warns Financial Post (Canadá) Trade minister Jim Carr said the WTO's dispute settlement system will effectively stall in the next few months, and it won't be good news. The operation of the World Trade Organization may soon stall because of U.S. delays in appointing new judges, Canada’s trade minister said as he prepares to convene another round of reform talks in Davos. Jim Carr, in an interview with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays in Tokyo, said the U.S. refusal to appoint judges to the appellate body of the 164-nation WTO means that in “the next number of months” the WTO’s dispute settlement system will effectively stall. That lends urgency to talks set to take place on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. “The most urgent problem is the dispute settlement mechanism. Without any new judges being appointed, the gears are going to come to a halt. They’re going to slow down, and it will not be good news,” Carr said. This week’s talks will be missing representatives from the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, as other nations try to navigate the giants’ trade fight. “You’re not going to have a durable and lasting reform of the WTO unless you have China and the United States involved. You can’t start there, though. But that’s where we’re going to have to end up,” Carr said. The trade minister’s comments come amid rising trade tensions globally, which have trade-reliant Canada — the world’s 10th-largest economy, for which exports make up about a quarter of gross domestic product — caught in the middle.
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Canada, at the request of the U.S., arrested a Huawei Technologies Co. executive on Dec. 1, a move that has triggered a bitter, rising feud with Beijing. President Donald Trump has mused that he may abandon the case against the executive if he reaches a satisfactory trade deal with China, blurring the lines between trade posturing and law enforcement.
II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS Trans-Pacific trade pact members work to entice more economies as bulwark against protectionism South China Morning Post (China) Eleven countries participating in a trans-Pacific free trade agreement said on Saturday that they will seek to expand membership in a quest to form a stronger united front against the rise of protectionism, amid an ongoing tariff war between China and the United States. The trade pact is “open to all economies” that can meet its high standards, delegates from the member countries said in a joint statement after attending a meeting in Tokyo, as the list of potential newcomers includes Thailand, Britain and Taiwan. The existing member countries, including Australia, Japan and Singapore, held their first ministerial meeting since the pact - known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership - took effect on December 30 without the United States. “It is our hope to see participation by as many countries and regions as possible. That includes the United States,” Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s minister in charge of the trade pact, said at a press conference.
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The accord, covering around 13 per cent of the world economy, is designed to cut tariffs on agricultural and industrial products, ease investment restrictions and enhance intellectual property protection. “Amid growing concerns over recent trends toward protectionism, ministers shared the view that it is of paramount importance to maintain and further strengthen the principles of an effective, open, inclusive and rules-based trading system,” the 11 member countries said in a statement. At the inaugural meeting of the trade bloc’s decision-making panel, the current members decided on procedures for accepting new members and the rules for settling disputes. It was also agreed that when a country aspires to join the trade framework, the panel will review the negotiations and make a decision as to whether the country can join. Japan held a ceremony at the prime minister’s office at which the delegates and business leaders celebrated the CPTPP coming into effect. But despite the joint push by the 11 countries for an expanded CPTPP, the outlook remains uncertain following the defeat in parliament of the British government’s plan to exit the European Union as well as a planned general election in Thailand, analysts said. Still, the entry into force of the CPTPP marked a critical milestone for the 11 countries that sought to save its older version, simply called the TPP, from collapse after US President Donald Trump pulled the world’s largest economy out of it. Trump’s pursuit of his “America First” agenda and bilateral deals to fix what he sees as imbalanced trade have rattled financial markets and sparked worries about the global economy. Canada and Mexico have renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement targeted by Trump.
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Canada’s trade minister Jim Carr, speaking at the joint press conference, said free trade agreements are “bridges” built by governments, but they need to be crossed by investment, goods and services so people can feel their benefits. Joining hands to pursue a multilateral approach to trade, Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore became the first six countries to end their domestic processes to ratify the pact, signed in March last year. The CPTPP became effective for Vietnam last Monday, while Brunei, Chile, Malaysia and Peru have yet to end their domestic procedures to ratify it. Appearing at the outset of the ministerial meeting, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke of the need to make the pact effective for all 11 members “as soon as possible” as confidence in the global trade system has been “greatly shaken.” Japan has been promoting multilateral free trade arrangements while it awaits the start later this year of bilateral trade talks with the United States. Another free trade agreement with the European Union is set to take effect on February 1. “Japan will aim to expand the free, fair, and rules-based economic area,” Abe said. “As Group of 20 chair this year, we will spare no effort to strengthen the international trade system, including reform of the World Trade Organisation.”
Trade deal could very well happen with China, says Donald Trump The Economic Times (Índia) US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that a trade deal with China is most likely going to happen as he denied reports that his administration has removed some of the existing sanctions on China. "Things are going very well with China and with trade," Trump said at the White House. 5
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China and the US are currently holding talks to have a major bilateral trade agreement that addresses Trump's concerns about the massive imbalance of trade and theft of American intellectual property by the Chinese. Last year, Trump had imposed import tariffs on Chinese products worth more than USD 250 billion and an equal amount is under consideration. In December, Trump met with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Argentina where the two leaders agreed to give a temporary pause to their trade war and try to reach an agreement. Officials from the two countries are currently holding talks on issues related to bilateral trade. Trump on Saturday exuded confidence that the two countries are nearing a trade deal. "There were some false reports about sanctions being removed, we have taken in tremendous amounts of money into the United States because of the sanctions and we'll see how it goes," Trump said. "If we make a deal, certainly we wouldn't have sanctions. If we don't make a deal - we will, but I think China's been - we've really had a very extraordinary number of meetings, and a deal could very well happen with China," said the president. "It's going very well, I'd say about as well as it could possibly go. Without a question," he added.
III. OUTROS Brazil Is Back in the Game, New Leader Will Tell Davos Investors Bloomberg (Estados Unidos)
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President Jair Bolsonaro will debut in the World Economic Forum of Davos this year with a mission -- to present a new Brazil, more open to trade and foreign investment. Investors will listen for sure. Prospects that the world’s ninth-largest economy may become more business-friendly sounds like music to the ears of oil executives
and
portfolio
investors
alike,
after
more
than
a
decade
of
interventionist policies from previous governments. Even after a 20 percent rally over the past four months, the main index of the Sao Paulo stock exchange is still 40 percent below it’s all-time high in dollar terms. For all the potential, investors will want more than just promises. Years of corruption scandals, economic recession and political turmoil that included a presidential impeachment are still fresh in the collective memory. A taste of economic populism in Mexico didn’t help the region either. Now Brazil’s new leader, a former Army captain who has admitted to utter ignorance of economic issues, will have to convince his audience in the Swiss alps that he can plug a huge budget deficit by cutting expenditures and finding additional sources of revenue. The economic outlook for the country remains stable but disappointing, according to the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund, which forecasts growth of 2.5 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2020. “Brazil is a hot topic for foreign investors,” said Fabio Alperowitch, portfolio manager and founder of Fama Investimentos, a Sao Paulo-based fund manager. “But no one will change their opinion just because of his speech. Investors’ level of skepticism with emerging markets is still high.” On his long flight to Davos, Bolsonaro will carry the most crucial plan to tackle a budget deficit that hovers around 7 percent of gross domestic product -- a draft proposal to cut pension outlays and save as much as 1 trillion reais over 10 years. Whether he will attract enough congressional support for the bill when lawmakers reconvene in February will be a make or break moment for his administration. In the Spotlight 7
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With the absence of regional leaders such as Argentina’s Mauricio Macri and Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as well as big names such as Donald Trump or Xi Jinping, Bolsonaro should steal some of the limelight at Davos. While the presidents of Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay were grouped into the same panel on Latin America, Bolsonaro will give his own “special address” on stage with WEF founder Klaus Schwab. The president’s entourage will include his anti-corruption czar, former judge and now Justice Minister Sergio Moro, as well as the head of his economic team, Paulo Guedes. The University of Chicago-trained Guedes is expected to outline plans to downsize government, cut pension benefits and slash import tariffs. “It’s a unique moment that you have a government that is unabashedly liberal," said Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs. "We’ve never seen that in Brazil.” Many Possibilities The potential is huge. Brazil not only sits on large energy reserves but it also has a sizable consumer market with pent-up demand for all sorts of quality goods and services, from premier health care to cheaper cars and better roads. Take the example of solar panels. The sector grew nearly 400 percent last year and still only represents 0.4 percent of Brazil’s power matrix. That compares to around 6 percent of solar energy consumption in Germany, where solar radiation is 40 percent weaker than in Brazil, according to World Bank data. In a taste of the kind of deals that may flourish under a Bolsonaro administration, the former paratrooper this month signed off on the merger that will give Boeing control over Brazil’s Embraer, the world’s third-largest plane maker. Options are not limited to the aviation industry, where caps on foreign ownership were lifted last year. Up for sale are as many as 200 state-owned companies, including energy giant Eletrobras. As a result, the head of Brazil’s anti-trust agency, Cade, expects a 30 percent increase in M&A activity this year.
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“The opportunities are large,” said Bernardo Schneider, Chief Executive Officer of Icatu Vanguarda, a Rio de Janeiro-based investment management firm with 21 billion reais ($5.6 billion) under management. “It’s not a chicken flight, it s a long-term opportunity.”
¿Murió el Mercosur y nace una zona de libre comercio? Clarín (Argentina) Después de la reciente reunión de los presidentes de la Argentina y Brasil, es posible pensar que existe consenso para relanzar el Mercosur y diseñar e iniciar un nuevo acuerdo, más ajustado a las nuevas realidades internacionales y de los Estados miembros. La dinámica de la actual Unión Aduanera imperfecta es vista críticamente en ambos países, por cuanto no se avanzó demasiado en el proceso de una mayor apertura, sobre la base de acuerdos regionales, y tampoco contribuyó a mejorar la productividad de los factores económicos. El proceso de constitución del Mercosur (1991) se estableció en un contexto mundial, regional y nacional considerablemente diferente a la dinámica que se observó en los últimos años y su perspectiva. Hoy, la situación internacional registra una cierta parálisis del proceso de globalización, con un freno significativo en las negociaciones multilaterales de la OMC y un crecimiento de los acuerdos regionales, en el marco de un cierto proteccionismo que se reflejan en el Brexit y en las decisiones del presidente Trump respecto de los acuerdos comerciales imperantes, tal como se observa en la relación entre EE.UU. y China. Por otra parte, a nivel regional la situación de Argentina y Brasil evolucionaron de
manera
diferente
en
cuanto
al
comportamiento
de
las
variables
macroeconómicas, lo cual genera una restricción para la dinámica del proceso de integración. La insatisfacción respecto al comportamiento del bloque es compartida por muchos dirigentes y economistas, por diversas razones. A continuación podemos exponer algunas ideas que entendemos pueden ayudar al debate.
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El Mercosur, si fuera lo que los tratados establecen desde hace 25 años, ya sería, y no en el futuro, un mercado común y una unión política, con todo lo que ello implica. A saber: libre movilidad de los bienes, los servicios y las personas, leyes comunes,
políticas
económicas
compatibles,
tribunales,
banco
central
y
parlamento supranacionales y otra lista de instituciones, disciplinas y políticas largas de enumerar pero fácil de darse cuenta que no existen ni tienen viso ni posibilidad de existir. En otras palabras, desde hace años venimos todos incumpliendo los tratados y reglamentos. Nadie ha querido reconocer que el Mercosur, tal como se lo diseño y prescriben las leyes, ha dejado de existir. Esta parálisis es el resultado de una combinación de inacción, mala práctica, desconocimiento y la aplicación de políticas regresivas que han sido particularmente erróneas y negligentes, en los últimos 18 años, con ideas basadas en otro enfoque, como sumar el régimen totalitario de Venezuela. Poco y nada queda del tratado de Asunción, de Ouro Preto o del cronograma de Las Leñas. Cuando se dice que el Mercosur no es prioridad, es porque ,en países como los nuestros,
con
pobreza,
desigualdad,
inestabilidad
y
bajo
dinamismo,
la
integración, no es la principal cuestión. La integración va desde las zonas de preferencias arancelarias; las zonas de libre comercio como el tratado de América del Norte, que se acaba de reformular; las uniones aduaneras, los mercados comunes y uniones económicas, como la Unión Europea. Cada uno de estos sistemas es diferente, pero hay una profundización respecto del otro, y están sostenidos por un conjunto de normas, disciplinas e instituciones diferentes. Por eso, es extraño ver que se crea un parlamento del Mercosur cuando no existe la supranacionalidad, o un arancel externo común que no es tal y tiene centenares de perforaciones, o que existen negociaciones individuales de un estado miembro con otros países, por nombrar algunas pocas excentricidades. Todo esto es incompatible con el mercado común, con la unión aduanera e incluso con la zona de libre comercio. De más está decir que sin entornos macroeconómicos estables es imposible mantener la integración. 10
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En tal sentido, cabría saber si la visión de ambos países se basa primordialmente en la complementariedad, o no, y en qué grado. Ello implica contestar, entre otras, las siguientes preguntas: *¿Es el mundo actual el mismo que cuando se ideó el Mercosur, con un sistema político mundial todavía bipolar y áreas económicas definidas y la globalización incipiente? *¿Es la Argentina la de aquel entonces? *¿Lo es Brasil? *¿Hacia qué mercados nos queremos dirigir; el Mercosur actual ayuda o entorpece? *¿De dónde y qué tipo de inversiones buscamos? *¿Nos conviene y estamos dispuestos a pagar el precio del arancel común? *¿Estamos dispuestos a tener un sistema impositivo compatible o igual al de Brasil? *¿Estamos de acuerdo en resignar soberanía en instituciones supranacionales? La respuesta a estas y otras preguntas se deben contestar primero en el país para luego discutirlas con nuestros socios. Transitoriamente, mantendríamos el Mercosur como está, pero suspendiendo su dinámica de unión aduanera y simultáneamente se generaría un espacio de alto nivel para rediseñar un nuevo tratado. Y como base de ese nuevo acuerdo proponemos una zona de libre comercio,conservando alguna parte del sistema de integración, tal como los acuerdos sectoriales. Para que esta zona de libre comercio realmente funcione, se deberá redefinir algunas instituciones tales como la comisión de comercio, el órgano de solución de controversias, los reglamentos de origen, las normas de defensa de la competencia, las normas técnicas, las cuestiones medioambientales y la propiedad intelectual.
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La supresión o anulación de los tratados del Mercosur en sus aspectos económicos, puede parecer un retroceso, pero entendemos que se parece más a un avance porque permitiría reordenar las normas hoy dispersas y no cumplidas y daría libertad para negociar con terceros de forma individual o coordinada. La realidad y su modificación implica reconocer que hoy el Mercosur original no existe y que hay que crear uno nuevo para bienestar de todos.
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