Sobre la propagación de rumores - Academia de Ciencias de Morelos

26 abr. 2010 - vedad, porque perdió interés, pera dió vigencia o urgencia. El simil con las epidemias es más o mea nos sencillo: un rumor se propaga.
287KB Größe 7 Downloads 48 vistas
_/XQHVGH$EULOGH_&,(1&,$ 

$&$'(0,$'(&,(1&,$6'(025(/26$& ¢&RPHQWDULRV\VXJHUHQFLDV"¢3UHJXQWDV VREUHWHPDVFLHQWtÀFRV"&217É&7$126 HGDFPRU#LEWXQDPP[

/D&LHQFLDGHVGH0RUHORVSDUDHOPXQGR

7RGRVORVDUWtFXORVSXEOLFDGRVHQHVWDVHFFLyQGH/D8QLyQGH0RUHORVKDQVLGRUHYLVDGRV\DSUREDGRVSRUHOFRPLWpHGLWRULDOGHOD$FDGHPLDGH&LHQFLDVGH0RUHORV $&FX\RVLQWHJUDQWHVVRQ'U(QULTXH*DOLQGR)HQWDQHV &RRUGLQDGRU 'U(GPXQGR&DOYD'U+HUQiQ/DUUDOGH'U6HUJLR&XHYDV\'U*DEULHO,WXUULDJD

6REUHODSURSDJDFLyQGHUXPRUHV +HUQiQ/DUUDOGH5LGDXUD ,QVWLWXWRGH&LHQFLDV)tVLFDV 81$0&DPSXV0RUHORV 0LHPEURGHOD$FDGHPLDGH &LHQFLDVGH0RUHORV

+

DFHXQRVGtDVVHSURSDJy SRU&XHUQDYDFDHOUXPRU GHTXHXQDEDQGDGHQDU FRWUDÀFDQWHVKDUtDXQ´RSHUDWLYRµ GXUDQWHODQRFKH\UHFRPHQGDEDD ODJHQWHQRVDOLUGHVXVFDVDVGHV SXpV GH ODV  SP &RPR FRQVH FXHQFLD ODV HVFXHODV YHVSHUWLQDV VXVSHQGLHURQ DFWLYLGDGHV P~OWL SOHVQHJRFLRVFHUUDURQWHPSUDQR ORV MyYHQHV QR IXHURQ D ORV ´DQ WURVµ\HQYH]GHODWtSLFDDWPyVIH UDIHVWLYDTXHUHLQDHQ&XHUQDYDFD ORVYLHUQHVSRUODQRFKHKXERXQD QRFKHVHPLGHVLHUWD\WHQVD 8Q DVSHFWR LQWHUHVDQWH GH HVWD VLWXDFLyQ IXH OD H[WUDRUGLQDULD UDSLGH]\HÀFLHQFLDFRQODTXHVH SURSDJyHOUXPRU3DUDHOYLHUQHV DOPHGLRGtD\R\DKDEtDUHFLELGR ODLQIRUPDFLyQSRUFLQFRYtDVGLV WLQWDV \ SDUD OD WDUGH FDVL WRGRV HQ &XHUQDYDFD \ PXFKRV HQ HO ') HVWDEDQ HQWHUDGRV $QWH OD DPHQD]DGHSHOLJURTXHFRQWHQtD HO UXPRU \ OD DXVHQFLD GH LQIRU PDFLyQRÀFLDODOUHVSHFWRODJHQ WHGHFLGLyQRFRUUHUULHVJRV\FDVL WRGDV ODV DFWLYLGDGHV VRFLDOHV VH VXVSHQGLHURQ HVD QRFKH 'H PD QHUDDQiORJDHQRWURVFRQWH[WRV OD SURSDJDFLyQ GH UXPRUHV DIHF WD ODV GHFLVLRQHV HQ XQD HQRUPH YDULHGDG GH VLWXDFLRQHV $Vt ORV UXPRUHVSXHGHQDIHFWDUODLPDJHQ GHGHSRUWLVWDV\DFWRUHVUHSHUFX WLHQGRHQVXSRSXODULGDGSXHGHQ DIHFWDUODUHSXWDFLyQGHSHUVRQD MHV SROtWLFRV \ ORV UHVXOWDGRV GH HOHFFLRQHVSXHGHQDIHFWDUODVGH FLVLRQHVGHFRPSUD\YHQWD\SRU OR WDQWR ODV FRWL]DFLRQHV GH LQV WUXPHQWRVÀQDQFLHURV'HKHFKR KLVWyULFDPHQWH ORV UXPRUHV KDQ LQFLWDGR UHYXHOWDV KDQ DOLPHQ WDGR SUHMXLFLRV KDQ OOHYDGR HP SUHVDV D OD TXLHEUD WDPELpQ KDQ HYLWDGR GHVDVWUHV KDQ URWR SDUH MDV\KDQDIHFWDGRDDPLVWDGHV(O UXPRU TXH DIHFWy D &XHUQDYDFD FDXVy FXDQGR PHQRV SpUGLGDV HFRQyPLFDVSHURFRQODLQIRUPD FLyQGLVSRQLEOHKDVWDHOPRPHQWR D~Q QR VDEHPRV VL KDEUi HYLWDGR TXH RFXUULHUDQ GHVJUDFLDV PD\R UHVODQRFKHGHOYLHUQHV (QYLVWDGHODJUDQLQÁXHQFLDTXH SXHGHQWHQHUORVUXPRUHVVREUHHO FRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHORVLQGLYLGXRV TXH FRQIRUPDQ OD VRFLHGDG D OR ODUJRGHORVDxRVVHKDQKHFKRHV

7HRUtDGHOUXPRUREUDGHOSLQWRU&pVDU/HDO-LPpQH] IXHU]RVSRUWUDWDUGHHQWHQGHUTXp VRQ ORV UXPRUHV FyPR UHDFFLR QDQ ORV LQGLYLGXRV DO UHFLELUORV \ FyPR VH SURSDJDQ D WUDYpV GHO WHMLGRVRFLDO&RPRYHUHPRVPiV DGHODQWH OD SURSDJDFLyQ GH UX PRUHVFRPSDUWHPXFKRVDVSHFWRV FRQHOSURFHVRGHSURSDJDFLyQGH HSLGHPLDV3HURDQWHVGHSDVDUD HVRGHEHPRVGHÀQLUTXpHVORTXH YDPRVDHQWHQGHUFRPRXQUXPRU 3DUDODGLVFXVLyQTXHVLJXHXQUX PRU VH UHÀHUH D LQIRUPDFLyQ XQ PHQVDMH TXH VH WUDQVPLWH HQWUH SHUVRQDVVLQTXHHOFRQWHQLGRGHO PHQVDMHKD\DVLGRFRQÀUPDGR(V LPSRUWDQWHUHFDOFDUTXHHVWDGHÀ QLFLyQQRSUHVXSRQHTXHHOUXPRU VHDIDOVRRYHUtGLFRWDQVRORTXH OD YHUDFLGDG GHO PHQVDMH QR HV FRQÀUPDGD DQWHV GH WUDQVPLWLUOR DRWUDVSHUVRQDV $KRUDELHQGLVWLQWDVSHUVRQDVUH DFFLRQDQ GH PDQHUD GLIHUHQWH DO UHFLELUXQUXPRU$OJXQDVSHUVR QDVQROHGDQFUpGLWRORLJQRUDQ \ QR OR FRQWLQ~DQ SURSDJDQGR 2WUDVHQFDPELRVtORFUHHQ\OR FRPXQLFDQ D ORV FRQRFLGRV TXH SRGUtDQ HVWDU LQWHUHVDGRV 3HUR DXQORVSURSDJDGRUHVGHXQUXPRU FHVDQ GH SURSDJDUOR GHVSXpV GH FLHUWR WLHPSR LQFOXVR VL OR YXHO YHQDUHFLELUSRUDOJ~QRWURFDQDO

\DVHDSRUTXHHOUXPRUSHUGLyQR YHGDGSRUTXHSHUGLyLQWHUpVSHU GLyYLJHQFLDRXUJHQFLD(OVtPLO FRQ ODV HSLGHPLDV HV PiV R PH QRVVHQFLOORXQUXPRUVHSURSDJD FRPRXQDHQIHUPHGDG'HPDQH UD PX\ VLPSOLÀFDGD XQD HSLGH PLDVHSURSDJDHQXQDSREODFLyQ TXHHVWiFRPSXHVWDSRULQGLYLGXRV TXHSXHGHQVHULQPXQHVVXVFHSWL EOHVHQIHUPRVRUHIUDFWDULRV/RV LQPXQHV QR VH HQIHUPDQ \D VHD SRUVXQDWXUDOH]DRSRUHVWDUYD FXQDGRV DXQKDELHQGRHVWDGRHQ FRQWDFWRFRQSHUVRQDVLQIHFWDGDV QLFRQWDJLDQDRWURVHQHOFRQWH[ WRGHODSURSDJDFLyQGHUXPRUHV pVWRV FRUUHVSRQGHQ D ORV TXH QR FUHHQHOUXPRU\QRORSURSDJDQ /RVVXVFHSWLEOHVVRQODVSHUVRQDV TXHHVWiQVDQDVSHURSRGUtDQVHU FRQWDJLDGDVVLHQWUDQHQFRQWDFWR FRQXQHQIHUPRpVWRVFRUUHVSRQ GHQDTXLHQHVDXQQRKDQUHFLELGR HO UXPRU /DV SHUVRQDV UHIUDFWD ULDVVRQDTXpOODVTXH\DVXIULHURQ OD HQIHUPHGDG SXGLHQGR FRQWD JLDUDRWURVSHUR\DVDQDURQ(Q HO iPELWR GH HSLGHPLDV OD JHQWH TXH VH FXUD GH XQD HQIHUPHGDG IUHFXHQWHPHQWH DGTXLHUH GHIHQ VDV TXH OD LQPXQL]DQ GH PDQHUD TXHQRVHYXHOYHDFRQWDJLDU(Q HO FRQWH[WR GH OD SURSDJDFLyQ GH

UXPRUHV ORV LQGLYLGXRV UHIUDFWD ULRV FRUUHVSRQGHQ D OD JHQWH TXH KDELHQGR UHFLELGR \ WUDQVPLWLGR HOUXPRUGHVSXpVGHFLHUWRWLHP SRGHMDGHSURSDJDUHOUXPRU/D VLPLOLWXGHQWUHDPERVSURFHVRVHV WDOTXHODPRGHODFLyQPDWHPiWLFD GHHSLGHPLDV\GHSURSDJDFLyQGH UXPRUHV FRLQFLGH HQ PXFKRV DV SHFWRV7DQHVDVtTXHHQDPERV FDVRV VH KDFHQ SUHJXQWDV SDUHFL GDV ¢FXiQWR WDUGD HQ SURSDJDU VH OD HSLGHPLDUXPRU" ¢&XiQWD JHQWH VH HQWHUDFRQWDJLD" ¢&yPR YDUtD OD WUDQVPLVLyQ GHO UXPRU HSLGHPLDHQHOWLHPSR"¢&yPRVH SXHGH FRQWHQHU HO UXPRUHSLGH PLD"HQWUHRWUDV 3HURWDPELpQKD\GLIHUHQFLDVHQ WUHDPERVSURFHVRV3RVLEOHPHQWH OD GLIHUHQFLD PiV LPSRUWDQWH UD GLFDHQODVUHGHVGHWUDQVPLVLyQ TXH VRQ GHWHUPLQDGDV SRU ORV PHFDQLVPRV D WUDYpV GH ORV FXD OHVVHSURSDJDQODVHQIHUPHGDGHV \ ORV UXPRUHV UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH 3RUHMHPSORHOUXPRUTXHDIHFWy D &XHUQDYDFD VH WUDQVPLWLy SRU FRUUHRV HOHFWUyQLFRV SRU FRQYHU VDFLRQHV WHOHIyQLFDV SRU FRQYHU VDFLRQHVSHUVRQDOHVHLQFOXVRSRU DOJXQRVPHGLRVGHFRPXQLFDFLyQ PDVLYD (Q FDPELR HSLGHPLDV FRPRODGHLQÁXHQ]DVHSURSDJDQ

SULQFLSDOPHQWH SRU WUDQVPLVLyQ GH ÁXLGRV OiJULPDV VDOLYD HWF  PLHQWUDV TXH HO 6,'$ VH WUDQV PLWH SULQFLSDOPHQWH SRU FRQWDF WR VH[XDO \ SRU WUDQVIXVLRQHV GH VDQJUH /RV UXPRUHV VH HVSDUFHQ D WUDYpV GH ODV UHGHV VRFLDOHV GH ORV LQGLYLGXRV TXH FRQIRUPDQ D OD VRFLHGDG \ OD WUDQVPLVLyQ GHO UXPRU SXHGH KDFHUVH SRU PHGLR GH FXDOTXLHUD GH ORV PHGLRV GH FRPXQLFDFLyQ TXH HVWpQ GLVSRQL EOHV GH PDQHUD TXH ORV UXPRUHV VH SXHGHQ WUDQVPLWLU GH PDQHUD VHOHFWLYD HQ FRQYHUVDFLRQHV XQR D XQR FRQ DPLJRV R GH PDQHUD FROHFWLYD D PXFKDV SHUVRQDV HQ UHXQLRQHV R PHGLDQWH FRUUHRV HOHFWUyQLFRVHQYLDGRVDODUJDVOLV WDV GH FRQWDFWRV (VWR H[SOLFD HQ SDUWH OD HÀFLHQFLD FRQ OD TXH VH SURSDJDQKR\HQGtDORVUXPRUHV 0LHQWUDVTXHHQHOFDVRGHHSLGH PLDVXQDSHUVRQDFRQ6,'$SRU HMHPSOR VyOR SXHGH FRQWDJLDU D VXVSDUHMDVVH[XDOHVHQHOFDVRGH XQUXPRUXQDSHUVRQDHQLQWHUQHW OR SXHGH WUDQVPLWLU D FLHQWRV GH FRQRFLGRV FRQ XQ WHFOD]R $GH PiV GH ODV GLIHUHQFLDV HQWUH ODV UHGHV GH FRPXQLFDFLyQ VREUH ODV TXHVHSURSDJDQORVUXPRUHV\ODV UHGHVGHFRQWDFWRVFHUFDQRVVREUH ODV TXH VH SURSDJDQ ODV HSLGH PLDVKD\RWUDGLIHUHQFLDQRWDEOH HQWUHORVSURFHVRVGHSURSDJDFLyQ GH UXPRUHV \ GH HSLGHPLDV (Q HO FDVR GH UXPRUHV HV IUHFXHQWH TXHODJHQWHKDJDXQHVIXHU]RSRU WUDQVPLWLUHOUXPRUUHVXOWDQGRHQ XQDSURSDJDFLyQPiVHÀFLHQWHHQ FDPELR HV UDUR TXH XQ XQD SHU VRQDHQIHUPDEXVTXHDFWLYDPHQWH FRQWDJLDUDVXVFRQRFLGRV'HKH FKRFXDQGRKD\DOJXLHQHQIHUPR GHXQDHQIHUPHGDGFRQWDJLRVDVH OH DLVOD SRQLpQGROR HQ FXDUHQ WHQD FRQ HO REMHWLYR GH UHGXFLU HO Q~PHUR GH JHQWH TXH HQWUD HQ FRQWDFWR FRQ pO \ DVt UHGXFLU OD FDSDFLGDG GH SURSDJDFLyQ GH OD HQIHUPHGDG 2WUR DVSHFWR LQWHUHVDQWH HQ OD SURSDJDFLyQGHUXPRUHVTXHWDP ELpQWLHQHDQDORJtDVHQHOFRQWH[WR GHHSLGHPLDVHQGRQGHHODJHQWH LQIHFFLRVR SXHGH PXWDU PLHQWUDV VH SURSDJD HV TXH HO FRQWHQLGR GHO UXPRU HO PHQVDMH WDPELpQ SXHGH FDPELDU DO VHU WUDQVPL WLGR GH XQD SHUVRQD D RWUD (VWR RFXUUH SRU YDULDV UD]RQHV HQWUH ODV TXH GHVWDFDQ TXH OD SHUVRQD UHWUDQVPLWLHQGR HO UXPRU QR OR KD\D HQWHQGLGR FRUUHFWDPHQWH DO UHFLELUORFRPRRFXUUHHQHOMXHJR GH WHOpIRQR GHVFRPSXHVWR RWUD SRVLELOLGDG HV TXH OD SHUVRQD UH WUDQVPLWLHQGRHOUXPRUORPRGLÀ TXHLQWHQFLRQDOPHQWH\DVHDRPL

/XQHVGH$EULOGH_/$81,Ð1'(025(/26_

$&$'(0,$'(&,(1&,$6'(025(/26$&  WLHQGRGHWDOOHVTXHDpOOHSDUHFHQ LUUHOHYDQWHV R LQFRUUHFWRV  \R DxDGLHQGR LQIRUPDFLyQ H[WUD OR TXH OODPDUtDPRV ´HFKDUOH GH VX FRVHFKDµ 9ROYLHQGRDODVLWXD FLyQTXHYLYLPRVHQ&XHUQDYDFD D Pt PH OOHJDURQ GRV YHUVLRQHV GHO UXPRU XQD FRPR OD GHVFULEt DO LQLFLR GH HVWDV OtQHDV \ RWUD DSDUHQWHPHQWHPHQRVGLIXQGLGD HQODTXHVHDÀUPDEDTXHHUDQODV DXWRULGDGHVODVTXHKDEtDQGHFUH WDGR XQ WRTXH GH TXHGD SDUD HO YLHUQHVHQODQRFKH%LHQSRGUtD KDEHUVLGRHOFDVRTXHXQDGHODV YHUVLRQHV IXHUD XQD ´PXWDFLyQµ GH OD RWUD (VWR QRV OOHYD ÀQDO PHQWHDODSUHJXQWDGHODYHUDFL GDG GH ORV UXPRUHV (Q JHQHUDO HVGLItFLOGHFLGLUTXpWDQYHUDFHV VRQORVUXPRUHVFXDQGRVHRULJL QDQ6LQHPEDUJRVLVRQVXVFHSWL EOHVDVHUPRGLÀFDGRVGXUDQWHVX WUDQVPLVLyQVXHOHQGHJHQHUDUHQ PHQVDMHVTXHWLHQHQSRFRRQDGD TXHYHUFRQHOUXPRURULJLQDOHQ FX\RFDVRSUREDEOHPHQWHWHQJDQ SRFRVHOHPHQWRVGHYHUGDG$XQ TXHWDPELpQVHSXHGHGDUHOFDVR HQ TXH ODV PRGLÀFDFLRQHV GX UDQWHODWUDQVPLVLyQFRUULJHQORV GHWDOOHV LQFRUUHFWRV GHO PHQVDMH RULJLQDO GDQGR OXJDU D UXPRUHV H[WUHPDGDPHQWH YHUDFHV (VWR ~OWLPR HV LQIUHFXHQWH SRUTXH UHTXLHUH TXH HO PHQVDMH SDVH D WUDYpVGHSHUVRQDVFRQVXÀFLHQWH LQIRUPDFLyQ\FULWHULRFRPRSDUD FRUUHJLUORVHUURUHVDQWHVGHTXH FDPELHQ HO VHQWLGR GHO PHQVDMH \ UHWUDQVPLWDQ HO UXPRU ´FRUUH JLGRµ (Q HO FDVR GHO UXPRU HQ &XHUQDYDFD ORV PHFDQLVPRV GH WUDQVPLVLyQ HOHFWUyQLFD UHGXMH URQODVSRVLELOLGDGHVGHFDPELDU HOPHQVDMH \DTXHVHUHGLULJtDOD FDUWD ´RULJLQDOµ  \ VRODPHQWH OD WUDQVPLVLyQ RUDO GHO UXPRU GHEH GH KDEHU VLGR OD FDXVD GH TXH KXELHUDQ RFXUULGR ORV SRVLEOHV FDPELRV HQ HO PHQVDMH RULJLQDO (QYLVWDGHORDQWHULRUHQJHQH UDOHVUHFRPHQGDEOHVRVSHFKDUGH ODYHUDFLGDGGHUXPRUHVTXHKDQ DGTXLULGR FRQWHQLGRV GLIHUHQWHV \DTXHHVWRVLJQLÀFDTXHKDQWH QLGR WLHPSR GH VHU PRGLÀFDGRV GXUDQWHVXSURSDJDFLyQ6LQHP EDUJR VL KD\ UD]RQHV SDUD FUHHU TXH HO UXPRU QR KD VLGR PRGLÀ FDGR R VL ODV GLYHUVDV YHUVLRQHV FRLQFLGHQHQVXPHQVDMHHVHQFLDO DXQTXHQRHQVXVGHWDOOHVHVGH FLUVLXQRD~QSXHGHGLVFHUQLUHO PHQVDMH RULJLQDO HQWRQFHV VyOR WHQLHQGRDFFHVRLQIRUPDFLRQYH UD]\RSRUWXQDSRURWURVPHGLRV VHSXHGHGHWHUPLQDUODYHUDFLGDG RIDOVHGDGGHGLFKRPHQVDMH

3DUDDFWLYLGDGHVUHFLHQWHV GHOD$FDGHPLD\DUWtFXORV DQWHULRUHVSXHGHFRQVXOWDU ZZZDFPRURUJP[