Situación México 4º Trimestre 2017 | Unidad de México

Índice 1. En resumen

2

2. Se consolida el entorno global positivo

4

3. Debilidad transitoria en el 3T17 derivada del impacto negativo de fenómenos naturales

9

4. La probabilidad de éxito del TLCAN 2.0 ha disminuido

20

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6. Previsiones

31

Fecha de cierre: 9 de noviembre de 2017

Situación México / 4º Trimestre 2017

1. En resumen En los últimos trimestres se ha consolidado el entorno global positivo. Nuestras nuevas previsiones implican que el crecimiento global se acelera hasta el 3.4% en 2017-18, lo que supone una revisión al alza de alrededor de dos décimas HVWHDxR\XQDDFHOHUDFLyQGHVGHHOGHODxRSDVDGR(VWHFDPELRUHVSRQGHDOPD\RUFUHFLPLHQWRSUHYLVWRDKRUD tanto para China como para Europa en 2017 debido a las sorpresas positivas en ambas regiones desde el segundo WULPHVWUH3DUD((88VHPDQWLHQHODSUR\HFFLyQGHXQFUHFLPLHQWRVRVWHQLGRDOJRSRUHQFLPDGHOHQHOKRUL]RQWH GHSUHYLVLyQ/RVIDFWRUHVVXE\DFHQWHVTXHKDQD\XGDGRDODDFHOHUDFLyQ\HVWDELOL]DFLyQGHOFUHFLPLHQWRPXQGLDOVHJXLUiQHVWDQGRSUHVHQWHVVLELHQDOJXQRVSRGUtDQLUGHVYDQHFLpQGRVHJUDGXDOPHQWHHQORVSUy[LPRVWULPHVWUHV(OPiV LQPHGLDWRVHUiODQRUPDOL]DFLyQGHODSROtWLFDPRQHWDULDSRUSDUWHWDQWRGHOD5HVHUYD)HGHUDOFRPRGHO%DQFR&HQWUDO (XURSHR\DTXHVXSRQGUiXQDUHGXFFLyQSDXODWLQDGHODOLTXLGH]JOREDO\XQPHQRUDSR\RDORVÀXMRVGHFDSLWDOHVKDFLD ODVHFRQRPtDVHPHUJHQWHV$GHPiVVLJXHQH[LVWLHQGRP~OWLSOHVULHVJRVGHFDUiFWHUSROtWLFRTXHSXHGHQLQÀXLUHQOD FRQ¿DQ]DHFRQyPLFD\HQHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHORVPHUFDGRV (QXQHQWRUQRHQHOTXHHOFUHFLPLHQWRVLJXHVLHQGRGLQiPLFR\VLQVRUSUHVDVDODEDMDHQLQÀDFLyQORVEDQFRVFHQWUDOHV FRQWLQ~DQDGHODQWHFRQHOSURFHVRJUDGXDOGHUHWLUDGDGHORVHVWtPXORVPRQHWDULRV(QFRQFUHWROD5HVHUYD)HGHUDO (Fed) ha anunciado el inicio de la reducción de su balance a partir de octubre. Se trata de una reducción pasiva, al perPLWLUHOYHQFLPLHQWRGHSDUWHGHORVYHQFLPLHQWRVGHERQRVS~EOLFRV\SULYDGRV\TXHKDVLGRELHQFRPXQLFDGDSRUOR TXHQRKDJHQHUDGRQLQJ~QWLSRGHWHQVLyQHQORVPHUFDGRV(VPiVOD)HGPDQWLHQHVXH[SHFWDWLYDGHFRQWLQXDUFRQ HOFLFORGHVXELGDVGHWDVDVDSHVDUGHTXHORVPHUFDGRVVHKDQPRVWUDGRVLVWHPiWLFDPHQWHPiVEDMLVWDV(VSHUDPRV XQDVXELGDGHWDVDVR¿FLDOHVGHSEVHQGLFLHPEUHGHHVWHDxR\GRVVXELGDVDGLFLRQDOHVKDVWDHOHQ (Q 0p[LFR OD HFRQRPtD WXYR XQD FRQWUDFFLyQ HQ HO WHUFHU WULPHVWUH GHO DxR /D WDVD GH FUHFLPLHQWR SUHOLPLQDU FRQ UHVSHFWR DO WULPHVWUH DQWHULRU DQXDOL]DGD IXH GH  (VWH GHVHPSHxR VH H[SOLFD SRU XQD PHQRU GLQiPLFD HQ HO FRQVXPRTXHDVXYH]REHGHFHDODXPHQWRWUDQVLWRULRHQODLQÀDFLyQ\SRUODFDtGDHQODSURGXFFLyQSHWUROHUD\GH ODFRQVWUXFFLyQ$XQDGDDHVWDGHVDFHOHUDFLyQVHGLRXQLPSDFWRQHJDWLYRGHELGRDORVKXUDFDQHV\DORVVLVPRVGH septiembre. Para el último trimestre del año anticipamos un rebote impulsado en buena medida por la recuperación GHOFRPHUFLR\HOLQLFLRGHORVWUDEDMRVGHUHFRQVWUXFFLyQ&RQORVGDWRVGHFUHFLPLHQWRKDVWDHOPRPHQWR\DSRGHPRV D¿UPDUFRQXQDOWRJUDGRGHFHUWH]DTXHHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHODHFRQRPtDHQHVWDUiHQWUH\3DUDHODxR SUy[LPRHVWLPDPRVTXHODHFRQRPtDFUHFHUiDXQQLYHOVLPLODUDOGHVLQHPEDUJRKD\GRVIDFWRUHVGHULHVJRD FRQVLGHUDUODSRVLELOLGDGGHXQGHWHULRURHQODUHODFLyQFRPHUFLDOHQWUH0p[LFR\((88\ODLQFHUWLGXPEUHDOUHGHGRU GHODHOHFFLyQSUHVLGHQFLDOHQ(QORTXHUHVSHFWDDODV¿QDQ]DVS~EOLFDVSUHYHPRVTXHVHFXPSODODPHWDGH XQVXSHUiYLW¿VFDOSULPDULRGHGHO3,%(VWRMXQWRFRQHOUHPDQHQWHGHRSHUDFLyQGH%DQFRGH0p[LFRVLJQL¿FDUi TXHODGHXGDFRPRSRUFHQWDMHGHO3,%YD\DDFDHUSRUSULPHUDYH]HQGLH]DxRV(VWRUHGXFHVXVWDQFLDOPHQWHODVSRVLELOLGDGHVGHXQDUHEDMDHQODFDOL¿FDFLyQVREHUDQDGH0p[LFR /DV QHJRFLDFLRQHV GHO7/&$1 VH GHWHULRUDURQ HQ OD FXDUWD URQGD \ HO FDPLQR KDFLD HO7/&$1  VH WRUQy PXFKR PiVGHVD¿DQWH((88SXVRVREUHODPHVDSURSXHVWDVLQDFHSWDEOHVSDUDVXVFRQWUDSDUWHVDGHPiVGHTXHYROYLy DHQIDWL]DUODLQWHQFLyQGH((88GHUHGXFLUVXGp¿FLWFRPHUFLDO8QDUHWLUDGDXQLODWHUDOGH((88GHO7/&$1\DQR HVWiIXHUDGHGLVFXVLyQ'HKHFKRVLELHQVHJXLPRVDVLJQDQGRXQDSUREDELOLGDGPD\RUDDOGHVHQODFHSRVLWLYR GHODVQHJRFLDFLRQHVLH7/&$1 HVPHQRUDODGHTXHWHQtDPRVKDVWDVHSWLHPEUH(QRWUDVSDODEUDVODV SUREDELOLGDGHVGHDFXHUGR\UXSWXUDHVWiQDKRUDPiVEDODQFHDGDVHQQXHVWUDRSLQLyQ'LFKRORDQWHULRUFRPRKHPRV PRVWUDGRHQQ~PHURVDQWHULRUHVGHO6LWXDFLyQ0p[LFRVL((88DFW~DGHDFXHUGRDVXVLQWHUHVHVHFRQyPLFRVGHEHUtD preservar el tratado. (VWHFRQWH[WRVHKDUHÀHMDGRHQHOWLSRGHFDPELR(OGHELOLWDPLHQWRGHOSHVRGHVGHPHGLDGRVGHDJRVWRUHVSRQGHDORV riesgos asociados al TLCAN. El peor desempeño relativo del MXN comenzó con la 1ª ronda de negociación del TLCAN QRIXHDIHFWDGRSRUXQD)HGPiVhawkish\VHDFHQWXyHQRFWXEUHDODXPHQWDUORVULHVJRVGHUXSWXUDGHO7/&$1 +DFLDGHODQWHFXDOTXLHUFDPELRGHWHQGHQFLDVHJXLUiUHVSRQGLHQGRSULQFLSDOPHQWHDODHYROXFLyQGHODVSHUVSHFWLYDV en torno a la renegociación del TLCAN.

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Situación México / 4º Trimestre 2017

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3

Jun-16

4000

Mar-17

500

Dic-14

4

Sep-15

6000

Jun-13

1000

Mar-14

5

Dic-11

8000

Sep-12

1500

Mar-11

6

Jun-10

10000

Dic-08

2000

Sep-09

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Mar-08

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Fed

BCE

Balance total (mm USD, der)

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2011

2012

2013

Ec. Avanzadas

2014

2015

Ec. Emergentes

2016

2017

2018

Mundo, jul-17

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