Men missing on a night out: Exploring the geography of fatal disappearances to inform search strategies

Geoff Newiss Ian Greatbatch Photo by Andrew Peloso on Unsplash

Published 2017 University of Portsmouth Centre for the Study of Missing Persons See www.port.ac.uk/centre-for-the-study-of-missing-persons

Geoff Newiss is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of Criminal Justice Studies, University of Portsmouth (UK). Dr Ian Greatbatch is a Visiting Researcher at the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Portsmouth (UK). This report is the result of a collaboration between the authors and the UK Missing Persons Bureau, part of the National Crime Agency. See www.missingpersons.police.uk

Contents Executive summary

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1. Background

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2. Descriptive overview: people, disappearances, outcomes and risk

8

3. Geography of disappearances

15

4. Found on land: initial indicators

25

5. Summary and recommendations

28

References

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Executive summary This report presents findings from a study of 96 fatal disappearances of men who were last seen ‘on a night out’. To be included in the study the individuals had to have gone missing following an evening or night of socialising in an alcohol consumption environment; for example pubs, bars, nightclubs or an event such as a wedding or a party. The person had to be reported missing, and there had to be some doubt as to where the missing person had gone and what happened to them (for example, people seen entering water and getting into difficulty were not included). Rather than focusing on the personal attributes of a missing person, the missing on a night out study is grounded in the specific circumstances in which someone is reported missing. By doing so, the study sought to trial whether our understanding of risk (i.e. the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring) and the development of search strategies or heuristics could be refined by taking what might be called a circumstance-informed scenario approach. Characteristics, outcomes and risk The men in the sample were aged between 16 and 62, with 71 per cent aged 25 or under. One third were students. The winter months of December, January and February accounted for over half of all cases; six disappearances occurred after a work Christmas party, five after a New Year’s Eve celebration. In 89 per cent of the cases bodies were recovered from water: rivers, canals, lakes, the sea etc. Most were the result of an accident. 11 per cent of cases resulted in a body being found on land, after the individual died from a fall, hypothermia or a drugs overdose. In 60 per cent of cases the man remained missing for longer than one week, in contrast to just 5 per cent of all missing person cases. In 40 per cent of cases the body of the missing person was found by police or search teams; as duration increased bodies were more likely to be found by a member of the public. There is evidence that the risk of fatality in these cases is very high compared to other types of missing incident. Data provided by one police force indicate that 60 per cent of men missing on a night out for longer than two days will be found dead. A review of cases reported in the media suggest the risk of fatality may be as high as 95 per cent, once an individual has been missing longer than 24 hours.

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Geography Taking a smaller, circumstance-defined group of missing person cases has enabled the geographical analysis of these disappearances to be extended beyond a simple measure of distance from the place missing to the place found. The study identifies a number of important geographical components to these cases, in particular: the venue the missing person was last socialising in (the Last Venue Point), their last known position (LKP), their point of entry into the water or incapacity on land (Point of Incident), and the place their body was recovered (Point of Recovery). The analysis focused on identifying any patterns or relationships between these points that might inform the development of search strategies in future missing on a night out cases. A particular theme of the research was whether any indicators could be identified that were associated with the likelihood of bodies being found on land. Whilst the low number of found on land cases has prevented any meaningful statistical analysis, some tentative indicators have been examined. Cases were grouped according to five geographical categories of the Last Venue Point: areas of High Night-Time Economy (HNTE); Residential with some Night-Time Economy (RESNTE); Suburban, Residential or Industrial (SRI); Open (non-rural); and Rural areas. Further information is provided below.

High Night-Time Economy Typically city or town centres, with pubs, bars and nightclubs. Heavily populated areas at night-time.  Two-thirds of all missing on a night out cases involved disappearances from areas of High Night-Time Economy (HNTE).  In 90 per cent of HNTE cases bodies were found in water; 10 per cent on land.  There is a small, distinct cluster of cases of people who died on land having fallen close (